First Blog

Assorted Commentary -   Res ipsa loquitur* It is always a pleasure to jot down very short passages that explain themselves. The economy of words conveys truth often better than a long discourse.  “ W hen I was younger, I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not.” --- Mark Twain S ure it works in practice, but will it work in theory? --- French proverb W hen the "pity level" exceeds the "competency" level, a political candidate is doomed.  T he zero-sum game is often primitive thinking, even though it has theoretical value in war games and economics. When your thinking is every gain is someone’s loss, you are zero-sum thinking. This is the hallmark of a closed system.  O ne problem with the CIA and similar agencies is that they believe they can control the chaos they create. They fail to understand chaos is inherently unstable. T he most offensive is not their lying - one can always forgive lying - lying is a delightful thing, for it leads to truth -

  What to Do About AI in Colleges? There is a growing perception among students that ChatGPT can answer any question they have. This feeling extends to young professionals as well. Faculty must address this significant issue, perhaps even more urgently than traditional political problems. Let’s explore this further. Mathematics With the advent of tools like Maple and Mathematica*, students quickly realized these tools could solve many well-defined problems. These specialized AI tools are continually improving. Students understand this but accept that they must learn the techniques to pass their courses. Engineering Until recently, AI did not perform well on some engineering exams, but its capabilities are improving. Despite this, students believe AI will be available when needed in the future. As with math classes, students still comply and learn the material. Practical Application What students often fail to see is that in practice, problems are not simply presented; they must be cr

  When Is a Number, Not a Number? What numbers are not numbers? In some cases, as discussed below, information is represented with digits but does not represent a numeric value to be used in arithmetic operations. Basically, there are three types of numbers in general use: symbols, ordinals, and cardinals. Symbols Many of the numbers we use every day are not numbers at all. They are identifiers of some sort, not representing quantities or ranks. Here are the most common examples: ·         Phone Numbers : These are now almost entirely digital. Years ago, shorter numbers included an alphabetic prefix. For example, an old phone number might have been “LI5-7624”, where "LI" stood for "Lincoln." Now, area codes and country codes are required for calls between cities and countries, respectively. ·         Identification Numbers : These include Social Security numbers, student numbers, serial numbers, part numbers, etc. They are digital identifiers for which no

  A New Category of Impossible Problems Consider a new category of problems, impossible because they exist without clear solutions. In some cases, there are no possible solutions. Many of these problems are deeply embedded in systems, often going unnoticed or unrecognized. Corporate or national interests can easily conceal their presence or remain unaware of them. There may come a day when systems become so vast that they must be rejected, as their failure could lead to global disaster. Here are five examples, many of which involve significant government involvement in their creation. A. Global System Dependencies No company should be so globally pervasive that a failure in its systems could cause a worldwide catastrophe. This is particularly true for critical systems like airline booking, television networks, and health systems. For example, a technical issue identified by global cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike in its antivirus software for Microsoft Windows devices could have had cata

The Challenges of Complexity in the Future The emergence of a new class of problems - complexity - poses significant challenges for future science and just about everything else knowledge-based. These problems are characterized by their inherent difficulty and the multitude of possible solutions, none of which can be guaranteed to be correct or optimal. When a system reaches a certain level of complexity, it becomes possible to discern any pattern one chooses to see. Furthermore, these patterns can be convincingly proven through both data and analysis. For instance, economists and social scientists can derive different, yet provable, patterns within the economy and human cultures, leading to vastly different predictions. This multitude of solutions renders the problems of complexity seemingly impossible to solve definitively. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will likely exacerbate this issue. With access to comprehensive knowledge, AI systems will identify even more patterns, guided

  What is Hypertruth? You may never have heard of hypertruth, but it is part of your life. It is how you are swayed. Hypertruths are prevalent in various domains, from advertising, marketing, politics, and personal endorsements. Often, it’s how and what you believe. Opportunists see it as a tool; clergy see it as a sermon; politicians see it as more votes. Hypertruth is an excessive or exaggerated truth  that can take an ordinary truth beyond its natural domain, even becoming false. As well, it may involve elevating or expanding a minor point into a major concept.  An example would be a cleric taking truths from the bible and reinterpreting and exaggerating them from statements of peace to those suggesting destruction and war. Centuries ago, the Inquisition followed the hypertruth of severe punishment to correct heresy.  The current notion of “Cancel Culture” mimics such notions for political heresy, the shunning practice of some religions. Also, the politician may take accepted

  The Broken Leg Problem In psychology, there's something called the broken leg problem . A statistical formula may be highly successful in predicting whether or not a person will go to a movie in the next week. But someone who knows that this person is laid up with a broken leg will beat the formula. This is the story of insider trading, spying on your opponent, reading the tea leaves, and countless other information sources to help with a future situation or decision.  Currently, it applies to the US presidential race. Will Biden step down? You can guess. I can guess. But we cannot know what a select group of insiders know. Is there a broken leg issue? Similarly, we do not know who Trump will select for his VP choice. Since Trump is also elderly, we can surmise his VP choice could be very important, though none of us know who it might be. We can guess – only.

 Although I'm not a fan of President Biden, I did write him a letter recently on his memory issues. Here is what I said.  ------------------ Dear Mr. President,  I understand your memory problems, and your reluctance to take a cognitive test. I have them as well, and I'm 80. Here is what I do. I have made of list of names, dates, and events I should recall. Every morning I review this list. It helps me recall essential facts, and it helps my general recall of other events as well. I slowly add items to the list. Please consider. The country needs you to to look sharp.  Best wishes, Don -------------------- Memory recall is a fact for all of us. I recall when I first noticed this years ago. So, I made lists of things "To Do."  This helped for a while. Now my daily list helps. Believe me, one recalled memory makes another easier to recall. Memory must be constantly used and tested, or it fades. 

Changing Your Vote -  the Stages In every election, the pundits are always discussing vast populations changing their vote from one party to another. They discuss it with an undeserved nonchalance. However, each individual undergoes stages in changing their vote. Here are a few.  1. It's not like a switch - as in "on-off".  2. First there is doubt. 3. Then comes disillusionment.  4. Finally negativity sets in.  5. Then the vote changes.  People like to be loyal to their party. Switching candidates is not easy. For the stability of a nation, this may be a good thing. People should not change their vote easily.

Logical Fallacies. What They Are and What to Do. Argumentation is a technical term for trying to convince someone of a point of view or even a truth. Logical and emotional arguments are two principal ways to argue. Logical fallacies are those methods that pretend to be logical but are substantially flawed.  Formally then, we present a few of the more typical logical fallacies. We follow it up with tips that indicate what to look for when debating/arguing/conversing with a friend or opponent. ·         Ad hominem - attacking the person making the argument rather than the argument itself. ·         Straw man - misrepresenting the opponent's argument in order to make it easier to attack. ·         False dilemma - presenting two options as the only possible options, when in fact there are other options available. ·         Begging the question - assuming the truth of the conclusion in the premise of the argument. ·         Circular reasoning - using the conclusion of an arg