First Blog

  Trump Assassination Attempt: Conspiracy, Incompetence, or Something Else? The recent assassination attempt on Trump's life at a rally was a shocking and horrific event. Various explanations have been suggested, from a sudden turn of Trump's head or a bad aim to the US Secret Service's (USSS) inadequate coverage of the event. This has lent credence to conspiracy theories. Another popular theory is that the USSS has become lazy and incompetent under the Biden administration. However, there's a third possibility: induction . The USSS covers numerous events for high-ranking government officials and former presidents, with almost nothing untoward ever happening. This repeated uneventfulness can lull agents into a false sense of security, leading them to assume that no problems will arise at future events. This principle of induction is something we all use constantly. We generalize that the sun will rise every morning, the tides will come in every day, and the weather will

 On problem-solving at the dance hall.  The three sisters of modern thought and problem-solving are Deduction, Induction, and Abduction.   All recognize each is beautiful, very rich, but quite proper.   However, each is most different from the other.   They arrive at the ballroom, ready to dance. No time at all passes before partners line up for their favors. Deduction is a bit stilted on the dance floor but knows every step that follows the previous.   You will end up complete and correct. When the band stops, she will whisper QED in your ear. Induction needs much practice and many steps, but then finally knows the next step, and therefore full dance correctly and with rhythm. She can also dance backward. She could really dance all night. Abduction, if so inclined, will leap into your arms and teach you a few new dance steps you never dreamed of. You may not finish the dance, but you will know how to get there. When the music stops, she will disappear, almost as if floating away

  The only way to keep alive is to keep moving. It seems to be in the nature of man to push questions to the brink of impossibility and beyond.   An error made in the problem solution for today can generate the impossible problem having no solution for tomorrow. Induction and analogy, though important, often prove to be the lazy man’s route to problem solving – particularly when they are imprecisely or inaccurately   applied.   While induction is a valid mathematical technique, analogy merely provides heuristics and example to help with problem understanding.  One good marker of an impossible problem is this:  The greater the number of solutions offered, the more difficult or impossible it must be.  -------------------------------- Confusion Theory.  Yes, there is a confusion theory.  It purports many things.  Included are studies that suggest confusion may enhance the learning of complex topics.  Another is that they generate a sense of skepticism over reported events.