First Blog

The stock market is going up and up both in the USA and the world, despite impeachment, Iran, climate, swine flu, nuclear bomb production, taxes, and everything else you might think should mitigate the market.   With so much negativity you must have thoughts of impending doom. I do. Yet economic data are encouraging. People are spending money like crazy. Housing starts are up 16%.   The 10-year rate is strong. Unemployment is down. The new NAFTA and China deals are set. So, what do we fear besides fear itself? (Homage to FDR.)   Maybe Dengue fever?   Well, scientists have genetically modified mosquitos to fix that.   Is all this fear washed away?   Not quite.   The national barometer of fiscal confidence is the NYSE, the New York Stock Exchange. Here’s the latest assessment from that group of money grubbers The greatest fear on the floor of the stock market exchange is the fear of no bad news. This is singularly remarkable, that of discussing the fear of fear. So, what fear d

The extensible spring.  Think of the shock absorber on your car.  You hit a bump, the spring is compressed and then releases its energy slowly to cushion the bump.  Now think of capital markets in the same way.  This time the bump is a constant barrage of regulations.  They kept coming during the Obama administration.  For good or bad, the spring kept compressing.  Under Trump, the regulations have been relaxed, and the spring with all its stored up energy seems to be releasing its energy in an explosion of expansion.  This leads us to believe the markets have expanded (30 new DOW records this year), not back to their reasonable expression, but far beyond.  It leads one to think a rebound is possible, as it returns to where it should be.  And “should be,” on the basis of growth and market, are the key words.  We are led to believe the markets will settle back to reasonable positions, and this may imply a correction is coming.  A bumpy ride may be afoot.  Analogy is a wonde