First Blog

WORDS OF THE WEEK – From standard epidemiology textbooks and from comments by Drs. Fauci and Birx, we have the several new terms. Many of the terms involve “constants,” which in every model and are always approximated at the on set.   Even the constant of gravity. All the so-called models you hear about involve these constants, and that is why early models are often inaccurate. SIR model - Susceptible (those who can get it)-Infected (those who got it) -Removed (those who recovered). The SIR model is an equation that links these quantities. Important is there are constants of proportion for each disease most difficult to determine and usually approximated early in the epidemic (as we have sadly seen with COVID). Epidemics - are commonly associated with acute, highly-transmissible directly transmitted pathogens that either kills its host or induce strong protective immunity. Reproductive number R_0, average number of those newly infected from someone already infected Effect

Keywords of the week. If you're following the world-wide struggle against the coronavirus together with the usual politics, here are some words you have heard often. Intensive care and ICU Comorbidity Morbific Exempt Suspend Stockpile Ventilator Respirator Incubator Loan/grant Death and Infection rates? Doubling time Susceptible Asymptomatic Reopening Infectious Bipartisan Conference call Infrastructure Pandemic Epidemic Flatten the curve Therapeutic Vaccine Cure Guidance (from the CDC) Elective surgery Exponential growth Logarithmic growth* Model assumptions SIR type model (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) Phenomenological model Inflection point* *This term is often used incorrectly.

Vaccines are here . At first, and with their inventor Pasteur, vaccines were suspect. Then they were accepted. By 1855, the first required vaccines for school children were instituted in Massachusetts . They had a good run, with public trust almost complete.   Then came the first problem with a vaccine that couldn’t track a tricky disease, influenza. Then came a correlation of a vaccine with a worse condition, autism.   Now vaccines again are suspect once again.     Case A . We see a decline in flu cases as the use of flu vaccines increase.   Too complicated for many is this simple relation. T hey see only the first part, the “decline in flu cases, ” and so getting the flu vaccine is unnecessary and always inconvenient. So, they don’t. So, more flu cases occur. This initiates a cycle via this simple rule: Fewer flu cases this year implies fewer flu shots next year implies more flu cases. Surprised? Case B . In another situation, recall the 1998 (false) report that the MMR (M