First Blog

Success involving good luck comes in equal measure to failure involving bad luck.  Sounds true, but is  it really? He had the wisdom of experience, not of intelligence.   Sounds true, but can it be really? Which is the more powerful motivator.:   Ambition or Politics? Politics or Power? Reward or Position? Action or Reticence? Beliefs or Money? Money or Power? Fame or Power? Answer.  Yes to all of them.  This is what make us so complex.  There is no simple order of priority. Mathematically, we not not ordered or even partially ordered.  Our motivations are not at all ordered much beyond ordering life or death. Even that has issues. To govern by regulations is just another form of dictatorship. 

The extensible spring.  Think of the shock absorber on your car.  You hit a bump, the spring is compressed and then releases its energy slowly to cushion the bump.  Now think of capital markets in the same way.  This time the bump is a constant barrage of regulations.  They kept coming during the Obama administration.  For good or bad, the spring kept compressing.  Under Trump, the regulations have been relaxed, and the spring with all its stored up energy seems to be releasing its energy in an explosion of expansion.  This leads us to believe the markets have expanded (30 new DOW records this year), not back to their reasonable expression, but far beyond.  It leads one to think a rebound is possible, as it returns to where it should be.  And “should be,” on the basis of growth and market, are the key words.  We are led to believe the markets will settle back to reasonable positions, and this may imply a correction is coming.  A bumpy ride may be afoot.  Analogy is a wonde