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Showing posts with the label pollster

Poll Dancers

Predictions of elections reside in a world of experts, the poll dancers.   Let’s check ‘em out.   Most predicted a Clinton win by about 3% of the vote.   Nate Silver, the guru of statistics and outcome predictions, predicted chances for Clinton win at 70%. Other outlets predicted a Clinton win at 85%.   Even the odds-makers (bookies) gave her at least 2-1 odds for a win*. Some more so. Indeed, so confident was her team that Hillary Clinton left early from home for her hotel room near their NYC HQ anticipating the prospect of making an early winning announcement.    All were wrong.   Only a very few predicted a Trump win, and they were all discounted.   OK. Analysts will be analyzing away for years, among them the so very many who were wrong. They will conjecture, debate, write articles, write papers, write books, and appear on television, ad nauseam . The point here is not to give our own description of why.   Our point is about the “who.”    The “who” were acknowled