First Blog

Validity is a mighty big word. It seems to have its own meaning for each subject, though most center on the notions of correctness, consistency, conformity, and accuracy.   In fact, just Google, “whatchacallit validity” to get another definition.   Below are a few notions of important definitions. a.        As a state, as in being authentic or genuine. b.        As a force, for example legally. c.        As a measurement, as implying it does measure what is purported. d.        In research, as in the accuracy of measurements. e.        As proof, as in obeying the laws of accepted logic and premises. f.         As approved, as by an authority. g.        In statistics, as following and satisfying statistical tests. h.        In methodology, as in properly observing accepted procedures. i.          In prediction, as in how a test predicts another criterion. j.          In construct, as in the degree to which inferences can be made or how two tests closely compare.

Feeling pretty sharp today?  Gray cells a-buzzin'?  I've got some problems for you.  The problems can be approached at all levels.  But they are not easy.   A. Suppose you are asked to contribute to a 100 year time-capsule, with the directive it should be something beyond a picture, joke, or comment of the day.  What will you write?  It can be a prediction, a state of being, world conditions, problems solved or unsolved by then, etc.* B. Suppose you have all the power of congress, the President, and the courts for one day. You can pass one law. Your experiment is to describe the law, its desired future impact, and what could go wrong with your law. C. You journey back in time one hundred years, more or less – your choice.  You can do anything. Pass a law, start a war, cure a disease, kill a person, save a person…  Make your selection and predict how the world will have changed at your now-time. *In many ways you operate your own time capsule(s), not for 100 years ah

The black soldier fly maggot is voracious and really active.   The issue at hand is how thousands of them eat, say a piece of fruit. An important fact about our friends is they only eat for about five minutes and then “relax.”   But if they are still near the food, they will block other maggots from eating.   So for all to feed, they (self) organize.   This is not to say they are intelligent, no more so than the average undergrad.   They organize into a vortex of flow where the hungrier maggots come from below toward the food supply pushing the relaxed maggots up (and over the top).   The result is a vortex-like flow, sort of like a fountain or volcano. View from Below This is an example of dynamics, created by self-organized behavior, that feeds all.   The maggots do this (a) without a plan, and (b) without a leader.   One of the problems in understanding self-organization is to find the driver.   In this case, it is hunge

Predictions of elections reside in a world of experts, the poll dancers.   Let’s check ‘em out.   Most predicted a Clinton win by about 3% of the vote.   Nate Silver, the guru of statistics and outcome predictions, predicted chances for Clinton win at 70%. Other outlets predicted a Clinton win at 85%.   Even the odds-makers (bookies) gave her at least 2-1 odds for a win*. Some more so. Indeed, so confident was her team that Hillary Clinton left early from home for her hotel room near their NYC HQ anticipating the prospect of making an early winning announcement.    All were wrong.   Only a very few predicted a Trump win, and they were all discounted.   OK. Analysts will be analyzing away for years, among them the so very many who were wrong. They will conjecture, debate, write articles, write papers, write books, and appear on television, ad nauseam . The point here is not to give our own description of why.   Our point is about the “who.”    The “who” were acknowled

Most of us have debt.   We may owe money to the bank or favors to our friends.   We may owe allegiance to our country, company, or commitments.   We may owe a debt to ourselves for things we have or have not done.   We live in a sea of debt, most of it simply the cost of living.   Those of us without debt are either lucky or just not living.    Another form of debt, technical debt , has emerged only in last 25 years.   Originally, it was created as an aspect of computer code.   When a large code is created, many decisions must be made.   Often budget or time issues take a commanding position.   Sometimes, the quality of the software engineers is not up to the tasks of the complex demands.   Similarly, the knowledge base can be insufficient to proceed correctly.    The orders may be, “Get the code online and quickly, and reduce the costs wherever possible.”   The debt is with the readjustments, fixes, and rewriting of the code as it fails or becomes outdated.   Similar notio