First Blog

The Challenges of Complexity in the Future The emergence of a new class of problems - complexity - poses significant challenges for future science and just about everything else knowledge-based. These problems are characterized by their inherent difficulty and the multitude of possible solutions, none of which can be guaranteed to be correct or optimal. When a system reaches a certain level of complexity, it becomes possible to discern any pattern one chooses to see. Furthermore, these patterns can be convincingly proven through both data and analysis. For instance, economists and social scientists can derive different, yet provable, patterns within the economy and human cultures, leading to vastly different predictions. This multitude of solutions renders the problems of complexity seemingly impossible to solve definitively. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will likely exacerbate this issue. With access to comprehensive knowledge, AI systems will identify even more patterns, guided ...

  You must live in all time zones, past, present, and future. If you live only for today, there is no tomorrow. If you live in the future, there is no today. If you live in the past, time ceases.

Pictured below is some random person maybe like you or me.   His mind is whirling about considering problems and decisions yet to make. He is reflecting on years past and years to come. He is wondering about whether to take action on reports just in. He may even be wondering on his children’s health and how they are doing in their classes. He may have a slight muscle pull in his right thigh, but you’ll never know. It’s humid today and his arthritis is troublesome – the price of rail-splitting years ago. He didn’t sleep well last night but must perform today, and he struggles on. He has meetings in the afternoon with a dozen of people he doesn’t like, and later must write letters of condolence to families. He yearns for the peace of mind that may never come and is ever worried about those depending on him. All the while he hopes for good news from Grant. He does have issues similar to you and me, with only their magnitude and consequence in the balance. He is gone and you are here...

  While most of us believe the future is unknown, we pay good money and believe those who predict what it will be. This is the future paradox.  The future is unknowable. Yet, crowds of people have formed predicting what it will bring. Even more remarkable is that all of us know the first, yet many believe the second. The prediction class blossoms in December and then fade in the new year – to write more books. We crave any word from our politicians, our scientists, our futurists, our astrologers. How can they know, being they are often wrong?  It’s like predicting earthquakes, often made and often wrong. The predictor class is not unlike the insect.  During the early year they are in the larval stage, proceeding to the pupae stage around midyear, and finally in the last months take their adult form full of future predictions. Laying their eggs, usually on TV,  they prepare for the new year, ready to grub about, ready for their adult stage. If they are cor...

The TINA Effect Where do you NOT want to be? In a situation where you must act in a certain way and there is no alternative, like it or not. This can happen if you’ve been unemployed and along comes a job offer you know you don’t want but must take, like it or not. Other examples happen in relationships. You have a girlfriend and the relation is not working and you know the future is bleak. A break is needed. Similarly, you don’t respect your boss and you know there is no repair and thus no alternative but to part. Other times, you may need surgery badly – with no alternative. Many examples abound with friends and family, especially pertaining to the future. This situation has a name: The TINA effect – "There is no alternative." Originally created in business for portfolio management about where money should flow, it usually means that there is no other repository for money other than equity markets as opposed to bonds, gold, etc. But it is easily be applied ...

You hear an explanation of something almost everyday.   What do you do?   First of all, you consider it mostly on the surface of the brain.   Some new input, as it were. Then comes the decision.   You can Understand what was explained Believe what was explained Accept what was explained. These three key words, understand, believe, and accept comprise a gross summary. But they typify three principles by which the brain or mind holds explanations. There are variations, exceptions, and exclusions. Just one is important now, and that is you may take the explanation as an example of several others in your mind, none of which have any of the attributes.   It sort of sits there awaiting further processing. Before getting to the picayune details, note that understand, believe, and accept are mostly exclusive, meaning one does not imply the other.   For example, you may accept global warming into the future, but neither understand nor be...

Letters from the future.   Many of us wonder what can be achieved with big data, which combines multiple data bases and machine learning.  This is the first of a series of letters maybe not sent yet but soon will flood the world.  We are suggesting what can be done right now, like today.   Dear Ms Enyone, We thank you for completing our online survey on wellness and happiness in your situation.  Thank you for sending us your email address.  We have determined that you are more overweight than you desire and that your happiness coefficient is 58, placing you just in the sub-happy category.  We have also accessed your medical records and note your blood pressure is slightly elevated.  We have also noticed you watch many “how-to-diet” TV programs.    Importantly, we have determined your credit score is outstanding, currently at 790.    Therefore, in conjunction with our co-business partners Nile.biz and Slimmer-Trim...