First Blog

Predictions of elections reside in a world of experts, the poll dancers.   Let’s check ‘em out.   Most predicted a Clinton win by about 3% of the vote.   Nate Silver, the guru of statistics and outcome predictions, predicted chances for Clinton win at 70%. Other outlets predicted a Clinton win at 85%.   Even the odds-makers (bookies) gave her at least 2-1 odds for a win*. Some more so. Indeed, so confident was her team that Hillary Clinton left early from home for her hotel room near their NYC HQ anticipating the prospect of making an early winning announcement.    All were wrong.   Only a very few predicted a Trump win, and they were all discounted.   OK. Analysts will be analyzing away for years, among them the so very many who were wrong. They will conjecture, debate, write articles, write papers, write books, and appear on television, ad nauseam . The point here is not to give our own description of why.   Our point is about the “who.”    The “who” were acknowled

What is remarkable about this cycle of presidential political polling is that Donald Trump is well ahead, nationally at least.  His competitors, particularly the governors are trashing his every effort.  Cruz and Rubio are a bit more coy. The others get so little coverage its hard to say what they think.  Trump, it is said polls from the hard right, i.e. non-intelligent folks that believe hard right things.  But 41% is a number so high, it kinda defies understanding.  On the other had Hillary Clinton has been drifting to the left - to shore up support with the far left constituency (and money), and everybody expects her to drift toward the center after her inevitable nomination.  Good.  Hillary is doing what such folks do.  Predictable. The mystery is those confounded Republicans.  The governors and just about everyone else have maintained their political positions, not going left or right but by millimeters, just as they cast them months ago. They chastise the front-runner, but to