First Blog

  Problem-Solving: Disproving  or Proving a Statement There are several strategies to demonstrate the falsity of a statement: Contradiction: If a statement directly conflicts with a well-established fact or theory, it can be considered false. However, this is not an infallible test, as groundbreaking theories often challenge existing paradigms. Expert Opinion: While relying on experts can be helpful, it's not definitive. Even experts can be mistaken. Personal Belief: Personal beliefs, especially without a strong logical foundation, are unreliable for determining truth. Logical Falsification: In fields like mathematics and science, proving the conclusion of a statement false through accepted logical methods can be a strong indicator of its overall falsity. Lack of Replicability: If a statement or experiment cannot be replicated, it raises doubts about its validity. Author's Reputation: If the author has a history of ...

 Critical Analysis of Books and Journal Articles Unless you are an expert in the subject, you are often left with no choice but to accept the information presented and attempt to understand it. Critical analysis, particularly in technical fields, is not something everyone can easily engage in; it takes years of experience to develop the necessary expertise. Readers should assume that articles are written and reviewed by experts, with the expectation that both processes are conducted in good faith. This forms the credibility of the sources. When encountering new or unvetted material, skepticism is warranted, but true critical analysis is typically beyond the capacity of students or amateurs. While there are rare exceptions, they are uncommon. If the material you're reading is primarily opinion-based, it’s important to approach it with a healthy level of skepticism. However, you must also ask yourself whether you possess the expertise to confidently reject the claims being made. If...

When I was much younger, like an undergrad, I’d go out with friends for maybe a pizza and the discussion would be enjoined.   We’d argue this way and that, about one view or another.   We’d argue on and on until the pizza was long gone and bedtime or study time was upon us. Few feelings were hurt by the other. After all, it was just opinions shot back and forth.   The critical value of an opinion is in its flux of belief . It can or could be changed. Today, it’s different. When venturing onto websites of columnists, especially those of contributors, opinions are no longer changeable.   They are fixed, hardened, even cast as metal. Modern students are about the same, most with cast-iron views, not to be changed by anyone, any way, anyhow. The point here is you can’t call it an opinion unless you can cite something that someone can do or say to change it.   It rare we see this. What is slapped down on the page is not opinion but absolute truth in the...

The extensible spring.  Think of the shock absorber on your car.  You hit a bump, the spring is compressed and then releases its energy slowly to cushion the bump.  Now think of capital markets in the same way.  This time the bump is a constant barrage of regulations.  They kept coming during the Obama administration.  For good or bad, the spring kept compressing.  Under Trump, the regulations have been relaxed, and the spring with all its stored up energy seems to be releasing its energy in an explosion of expansion.  This leads us to believe the markets have expanded (30 new DOW records this year), not back to their reasonable expression, but far beyond.  It leads one to think a rebound is possible, as it returns to where it should be.  And “should be,” on the basis of growth and market, are the key words.  We are led to believe the markets will settle back to reasonable positions, and this may imply a correction is comin...

The Seven Tiers of Opinion.   We are pelted by opinions on all networks, particularly cable networks. But your opinion and mine have little impact.   To make it to a network appearance, you must have a credential, or several. It seems that any credential will do, provided you have the right opinion, matching the right network. I currently see all sorts.   Let’s make a list of just seven tiers of opinion.    Of course, the opinions of those at the top of the hierarchy gain the preferred coverage. These include former secretaries, chiefs of staff, former ambassadors, and generals at the top of the command chain.   Also, there is a plethora of CEO's, former and current.   All have some level of achievement.   Such players have opinions worthy of a listen, if only a quick one.         Then comes the second tier.   These include talk show hosts.   Always articulate, they have a near poetic ability to expre...

If you've been following the news the last couple of days, you will note the flurry of copy devoted to fake news.  Both sides are blaming whatever has befallen them the consequence of fake news.  Let's look at this phenomenon a bit.    When I was a student years ago, a friend climbed some mountain in Peru.   A article was written in the local newspaper about the event.   In only three column inches, the newspaper made about six errors.   An easy article to write you say?   Just interview and reproduce.   Yet so many errors?   The question is this: was this fake news or bad reporting?   The idea here is that fake news comes in various flavors. Bad reporting – errors made by the author or editor Opinion presented as news     Deliberate creation of falsehoods to favor a point of view       The reporting of selected truths to favor a particular point of view Now we have the big social media ...