First Blog

The slider If you’re a baseball fan, a slider is a type of pitch that tails laterally down through the batting zone.   Basically, it is a curveball , not horizontally left to right, but vertically down and to one side. If you’re a baseball runner, you might be sliding into home plate to avoid being tagged out. You’d be a slider. If you’re a kid, you could be called a slider by sliding on the winter ice. Luge racers are called sliders.   In the summer, you could slide down a hill on your butt – becoming a slider.   If you’re a radio or TV slider, you would be a knob that slides left-to-right or up-down to change the volume or station, rather than in a circular motion. If you’re a door, say to a patio that slides to open or close, you’d be called a slider. If you’re in a restaurant, you might order a dish of sliders, small little burgers served in four's. Also they are served as Hor d oeuvres .   Usually overcooked, they are often dry and tasteless.   If

I’m reminded of the great baseball pitcher Bob Gibson, who was reported to be so competitive he wouldn’t even let his daughter win at “Old Maid.”   I’m sure this story is exaggerated, but his legendary competitiveness is well known. (See: https://lownaway.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/bob-gibson-a-lesson-in-competitiveness/ )   The point here is that champions are competitive to the extreme.   Our case-in-point here is just that: competitiveness.   Almost all of our presidents have been competitive.   This is a good thing! Some, like Lincoln, concealed it very well. Others, like Roosevelt (Teddy-type) were brash about it.   But, this quality compels them to hold a vaunted office, an office not for the thin-skinned or the gentle soul.   They all have it, no matter how benign you think they are.   This includes among the recent presidents, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Bush x 2, Clinton, Obama, and most certainly PE-elect Trump.   Thus, we come to the nasty part of this report

Just as a FYI. The Indians just won game one in the series.  One team had to win. Now, suppose the two teams are evenly matched meaning the probability of either team winning is 0.5.  That is the odds are 50-50. True? Not true?  You decide. Assume no home team advantage - a stretch of your beliefs, I know. With these assumptions, we can compute. A. Suppose the Indians win the first game and both teams are evenly and stay evenly matched. Then the probability of the Indians win the series (best 4 of 7) is about .65. B. If Indians win the first two games, Then the probability the Indians win the series is  about .80. C. If the Indians win the first three games, Then the probability the Indians win the series is  about .94. Yet records indicate in the most recent twelve World series, the team winning the first game has a probability of winning the series is .91.  (Compare with .65.)  So, does this imply the team winning the first game is actually better (and it would have to be