First Blog

Events that can cause national panic (ordered). 1.       A military attack. 2.       A serious food shortage. 3.       A highly contagious disease. 4.       The economy tanks. Others (unordered) ·         High energy costs. ·         Massive unemployment. ·         Illegal immigration. ·         Crime. ·         Climate change. ·         Low birth rates.

 Why is there so much war? Here are a few short answers, all of which you will not like. A. Evolutionary. Humans evolved from the predator class of subspecies. It is natural for us, therefore, to consider predation, i.e. war, to solve problems. Had we evolved from, say a prey species, war possibilities would be much diminished, but so would our relentless quests for power. Even the Meerkats wage wars, the cute little things - but predators. B. Deistic. If you believe in a creator, you must then consider why did God create such an aggressive creature as the human being. However, who can speak for God? C. Pragmatic. Most agree that humankind is pragmatic, and certainly you can view war as a pragmatic solution to problems. D. Algorithmic. In the language of algorithms, humankind solves problems using greedy algorithms, that is, it tends to optimize the shortest term solutions to a conflict, to kill.  How many wars were thought to last only a few week, when begun? Many.  If man had a predi

Biggest Existential Threats . Every day our leaders warn us, scare us, and threaten us about existential threats. These hint at caution: “Do something now or we will cease to exist.”  What are they? For politicians: anything that will scare you into voting for them. For scientists: anything they believe may be risky. For religions: anything disabusing the scriptures. For the people: anything they believe to be dangerous in at the moment. There is much theory involved, projections into many decades ahead, life-style changes, political expediency, and more. Politicians love these things as they generate huge campaign war chests. Here’s the shortlist. Climate change – includes global warming, changing animal habitats, enlarged deserts, increased carbon dioxide, eventual degradation of livable area, an increase of disease, rising temperatures, arctic melting, etc. Recall, in the 70s, it was all about global cooling. Pandemics – usually highly contagious diseases spread by crowding and/or

 New Wars for New Times  What has changed for you and I  (i.e. old farts)  is the nature of conflict . In the olden days, there were the spies as individuals trying hard to subvert whatever. Individual or in a “cell,” they carried out operations such as a simple murder or theft of secrets. There were the armed enemies opposed by armed forces. So, we and they had spies trying to penetrate the opposition, promoting or preventing war. But now China has shown us the new method of institutional spying through co-opting congressional leaders (Swalwell, Feinstein, et al.), computer hacking for the theft of arbitrary information for future processing (everyone), co-opting of entire countries by issuing nonrepayable loans (Africa, Sri Lanka, etc), military intimidation (India, South China Sea), and penetrating corporate interests (Google, Facebook, etc) worldwide. Not a shot is fired; no armies are marshaled. The war now engaged is under cover of protocols, laws, policies, corruption, and p

Mankind has many enemies, not the least of which is himself.  What is remarkable is the list of enemies crosses multiple scales of physical dimensions, psychological dimensions, and biological dimensions.  When added up, the enemies list is long with dangers striking from everywhere. The short list of sources includes himself, nature, species, toxins, microorganisms, and more. Many are new, with the list of enemies growing as do we.  For example, a list only thirty years ago would not include the prion (of mad cow disease fame). In fact, the more you know about the agency of humans the more enemies you can find, and they become ever more lethal. The more you know about our world, the more threats you can perceive. Enemies for the metallurgist, the biologist, the climatologist, the naturalist, and so on are in abundance. Reading this very general list, one may wonder how we make it through life. Compound this with companion lists at the various life stages, and your wonder expan

Biggest Existential Threats .   Every day our leaders warn us, scare us, and threaten us about existential threats.   These hint at caution: “Do something now or we will cease to exist.”    What are they? For politicians: anything that will scare you into voting for them.   For scientists: anything they believe may be risky. For religions: anything disabusing the scriptures. For the people: anything they believe to be dangerous in at the moment.   There is much theory involved, projections into many decades ahead, life-style changes, political expediency, and more. Politicians love these things as they generate huge campaign war chests.   Here’s the shortlist: Climate change, Pandemics, Artificial Intelligence, Drones, War, and Black Swans. Climate change – includes global warming, changing animal habitats, enlarged deserts, increased carbon dioxide, eventual degradation of livable area, an increase of disease, rising temperatures, arctic melting, etc. Pandemics – usually hig

A big term these days is “Uncertainty.” This means people are not sure of what’s happening. Another big word is “Manipulation.” This means some quantity is altered on command. Adding one and one, we have “Manipulated Uncertainty.” And this means some agency is manipulating the uncertainty.   It applies to trade, to stock prices, to war, to politics, to materialism, and even to climate. Massive gains are available, as are massive losses. Causes: Too much money, too much polarization, too much hate, too much emotion, too much greed, too much profit, too much power, and too darn easy. Think it new?  Nope. Ancient.

Hate to sound pessimistic, but... Whenever anyone thinks they have a solution to the MIddle East, they are wrong. The biggest problem are a religion and leaders that seem willing to sacrifice its people en masse . It has leaders who simply wish arbitrary power with religious sanction. The USA and Europe are essentially unequipped to manage such conflicting desiderata. Europe has simply given up, but the USA continues to try. Expect little and you will not be disappointed. Trump is absolutely magnificent at commercial deals, but Middle East war is different. It is a place where power is everything, and religion is placed in its service. Or is it vise-versa? China, at least, views the world in terms of profit and power. This is not easy but easier. Human rights? Redistribution? Freedom of speech? Come on, already. Not there; never was; never will be. What the West does not realize is these modern Middle East leaders view themselves in historical terms.  At various

One foreign policy problem the US faces comes from the concept, “Only we can fix it.” We messed up Middle East stability by toppling Saddam Hussein, a tyrant of the first order. Yet he understood his turf.   The USA invasion opened the door to Iran. Enter Iran, not exactly a softball team.   Now we’re trying hard to close that door. And failing. In another failing of the US is it always underestimates just how much pain, suffering, and starvation despots will accept on behalf of their people. Under current sanctions, every day Iranians are in dire straits.   Venezuelan citizens have access to even less without concern by their government. North Koreans endure impoverished lives for the glory of the controlling regime. Russians suffer calmly as only they can. The latest Middle East attempt from the US is to unleash Turkey, whose boss, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan , is brimming for big power. Trump has now given him the chance. So, Erdoğan , accustomed to only small-time opposition,

Drowning in modern hate, many seek love not knowing what it is or where to look.   Years from now, the lost generation of our times may describe those so saturated by hate they were unable to find love. Not unlike those of past generations who were shattered by war, hate ultimately causes a loss of human identity.   Everything in their life, it will be written, was filtered through their hate, diminishing regular human relations, being unable to disassociate even the simplest event from their hate.   Hate, it will be reported, was highly contagious. Well documented are many examples of people consumed by horrors of war, obsessed with making money, or so wrapped with some beliefs that no form of normalcy was possible. The lost generation of the 1920’s came from World War I. The Catholic inquisition, beginning in the 12 th century was hosted by priests saturated with a compulsion to control religious dissent or combat heresy.   The French Revolution was captured new commoner class

CHINA and President XI We know Chinese President Xi Jinping has an appointment for life.   This is good news and bad for Xi.   Who doesn’t like a life-time job?   Following Machiavelli, this puts Xi in another category as dictator or king who is quietly and covertly challenged by the nobles in China.   The nobles are the super rich and super powerful players within China who see themselves in the same position.   They covet his power. They wait silently for Xi to make a mistake, one big enough to take him out.   And out he will come.   Xi is thus vulnerable and remains so, not having a cult-like following as did Mao, who was immune from any mistake. Trade by China may cause a Xi mistake.   The world is now openly talking about how China has taken advantage of all countries in trade, IP theft, high interest loans to poor countries, and the like.   This wholesale exposure indicates that it seems likely that China will be forced to yield in several ways.   As to which ways a

James Comey - former FBI director turned author.  His editor must be tearing his hair these days with new testimony and discovery requiring new chapter versions.  Likely his staff is sub-titling the future book, “Revelations then Rewrite.”  Cheer up, Jim! The truth is there; you may find it yet. For the Dems, it has been a love-hate-love-hate, and now love affair with hate just around the corner.  For the Reps, it’s been mostly hate all the way.  ----------------- On the Trump foreign policy: We may ask if President Trump is taking us to the edge of the volcano to see what’s there, or if he has some plans for quenching the fires down below. In a way, it is good news he has top generals guiding his moves.  These guys understand the horror of war, and do not celebrate “glorious death.”  They also understand that weakness invites reckless adventures by bold despots who themselves are guided by the simplistic policy to “hang on and they’ll cave.” A game difficult

This is the first of several parts. The first part is a bit grim, but I think accurate. A. Warfare of this century will take at least three forms.   (a) The classical battle between opponents in an open death conflict.   (b) The terrorist war of subterfuge and secret demolition.   (3) The electronic war of information, deceit, and deception.   This later new warfare is unlike that of the entire history of humanity.   It is disjointed, distanced, disconnected, and distributed in nature.   Leaders accustomed to confronting their opponent on the field will be surely defeated.   They cannot conceive of a battle without visible personality or at any rate a hidden lethal opponent secreted in a cave.   They cannot survive an unknown and unseen and undiscoverable enemy.    Such are the enemies of the great powers of the day.   Hidden, intelligent, vicious, subtle, disconnected they all are.   It is conducted on a twenty-four hour basis, every day, probing, stealing, and disrupting. The