KEYWORDS THIS WEEK

Keywords of the week. If you're following the world-wide struggle against the coronavirus together with the usual politics, here are some words you have heard often. Intensive care and ICU Comorbidity Morbific Exempt Suspend Stockpile Ventilator Respirator Incubator Loan/grant Death and Infection rates? Doubling time Susceptible Asymptomatic Reopening Infectious Bipartisan Conference call Infrastructure Pandemic Epidemic Flatten the curve Therapeutic Vaccine Cure Guidance (from the CDC) Elective surgery Exponential growth Logarithmic growth* Model assumptions SIR type model (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) Phenomenological model
Inflection point*

*This term is often used incorrectly.

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UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

Problem Solving? Then Find Those Gaps

Problem Solving - Finding Gaps 12/28/2024 Introduction. Solving complex problems often arises from the presence of gaps in knowledge, resources, understanding, or perspectives. These gaps introduce uncertainty, ambiguity, or constraints, making solutions difficult to achieve. Below, we explore the primary types of gaps that complicate problem-solving and their implications. Many are of the technical, informational, theoretical, and social nature. You may discover some of these gaps are also sources of uncertainty in problem-solving, in that they supply us with another list of things that can go wrong based on something missing. Gaps also form a type of impossible problem, that will be discussed in a later chapter. Finally, this essay is about all problems and solutions, not just those of science. Contents Comprehension Gaps Consistency Gaps Solution-Type Gaps Invisible Gaps Knowledge and Evidence Gaps Methodological and Technological Gaps Ethical and Cult...

CERTAINTY IS ALSO AN EMOTION

Certainty is also a Feeling Certainty is often viewed as a mental state tied to knowledge and confidence, but it also functions as a feeling with distinct emotional and physiological components. While it arises from cognitive processes, certainty also has a subjective and emotional quality that makes it more than just a rational judgment. It provides a sense of assurance and security that shapes human experience in profound ways. Emotional Dimension . At its core, certainty evokes emotions that influence how we perceive and interact with the world. When someone feels certain, they often experience relief, comfort, or empowerment. These emotions are particularly strong when uncertainty or doubt is resolved, offering a sense of closure. For example, solving a complex problem or having a belief validated by evidence brings not just intellectual satisfaction but also emotional reassurance. Subjectivity. Certainty is inherently personal and subjective. It depends on individual...

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