UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

 

Uncertainty is Certain
G. Donald Allen

12/12/2024

1.      Introduction.

This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty.  This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). Uncertainty has a broader scope, always more things can go wrong than right, in all manners than certainty.. However, both are companions and should be considered together.

Uncertainty is a general category for all that could go wrong.

Two quite distinct forms of uncertainty are in our lives, physical and psychological. For proper measure, we include a proportioned mix of both as a third form. All three have extreme forms. The uncertainty of farmers (§2) is mostly physical as exemplified by random weather conditions, or the tea worker in India by the random cobra coiled about the shrubs[1]. Uncertainty faced by students (§6)  is substantially psychological, and it comes at that youthful time when students are least prepared to handle it. Remarkably, it is in sports (§5) where players endure a full measure of both forms of uncertainty, those of the body through its strength and conditioning, and those of the mind, the need to rise to game conditions. For the sports figure, having a “bad day” is quantifiable. For the student, a “bad day" may mean a wave of self-doubt or simply being dumped.

Uncertainty is an emotion, feeling, or even a state of reason without any religious component. In (§4), we consider uncertainty within people and groups for an assortment of reasons. An evocative example is the testing of the first Atomic Bomb in 1945. Scientists were not 100% certain of what would happen, with one unfortunate possibility being that it would set the entire earth afire. If anything, most of us have dozens of uncertainties having little to do with religion, and all too many are self-created. Contents.

1.      Introduction.
2.       Farmers and Religion.
3.       Uncertainty, Mitigated by Religion. 
4.       Uncertainty in general.
5.       Uncertainty in Sports.
6.       Uncertainty of Students.
7.     Conclusions.

2. Farmers and Religion.

We begin with the most important group of people on earth, the farmers.  Religion has historically played a vital role in the lives of farmers, shaping their practices, values, and resilience. For agricultural communities, where livelihoods are deeply tied to the rhythms of nature, religion often provides a framework for understanding the world, coping with uncertainty, and fostering community cohesion. These broad strokes don’t begin to tell the story, and it is important in reading this to separate uncertainty from superstition and to understand the difference. Consider the following.

Understanding and coping with uncertainty. Farming is inherently uncertain, as it depends on unpredictable factors like weather, pests, market fluctuations, regulations, and indirectly on the health and vitality of the farmer and family. Religious beliefs and rituals often help farmers cope with uncertainty by offering a sense of control or hope. Prayers for rain, blessings for harvests, or ceremonies for protection against natural disasters are common practices in many farming cultures. These rituals provide solace and a way to channel anxiety into action.

Cyclical nature of life. Farmers often experience life as a series of cycles—planting, growing, harvesting, and resting. Many religious traditions align closely with these cycles, offering seasonal festivals, rituals, and teachings that mirror the agricultural calendar. For example, harvest festivals are a way to express gratitude and celebrate abundance, while periods of fasting or rest often align with dormant agricultural seasons. In ancient Egypt, it was the priests who determined planting times, so critical these calculations were.

Moral and ethical guidance. Religion offers a moral compass, guiding farmers in their interactions with the land, animals, and community. Teachings about stewardship emphasize care for the earth, sustainable practices, and the importance of preserving resources for future generations. Religious ethics can also influence how farmers treat laborers and distribute their harvest, fostering fairness and generosity.

Community and support networks. Religious institutions often serve as centers for community life, providing farmers with social support and collective strength. Worship gatherings, communal prayers, and shared celebrations create a sense of belonging and mutual aid, essential in times of hardship like droughts, tornados, or economic downturns.

Gratitude and perspective. Farming is hard work, and setbacks are inevitable. Religion often teaches gratitude and humility, encouraging farmers to focus on the blessings they have, even amidst challenges. This perspective can foster resilience and mental well-being.

Historical and cultural roots. In many societies, agricultural traditions and religious practices have evolved together, creating a rich tapestry of rituals and beliefs. These cultural traditions connect farmers to their ancestors and provide a sense of identity and continuity. Such traditions are rarely experienced by city dwellers except among local ethnic groups.

In summary, religion serves as a stabilizing force for farmers, offering spiritual comfort, moral guidance, and a sense of connection to the natural world and the divine. It helps them navigate the challenges of their profession while fostering community, sustainability, and resilience. Farming and religion are part and parcel of their existence.

3.      Uncertainty, Mitigated by Religion.  

While the reader may not be religious, he/she may note some familiar themes and might even wonder whether they share commonality with those having religion. We take a look at some of the more dire groups for which uncertainty is closely linked to religion, prayer, and worship.

Economically disadvantaged groups face poverty and instability often correlates with higher levels of religious faith. Many economically disadvantaged individuals turn to religion for community support, hope, and coping mechanisms. For refugees and displaced persons, faith often provides emotional strength and solidarity during displacement and trauma. Also for  Indigenous communities spiritual beliefs, often tied to nature and ancestry, are central to many communities' identities and resilience, such as American Indians. In countries with multiple classes of wealth (about all), wise leaders do not interfere with religious practices.

Youth in transition economies, particularly in regions where economic hardship and unemployment are prevalent often turn to religious groups for moral guidance, mentorship, and social belonging. Additionally, for people with chronic illnesses or disabilities and facing physical suffering and uncertainty about health outcomes, many turn to prayer and faith communities for support. Most specifically,  the elderly without social support (or even with) often find solace in religion as they face the uncertainties of aging, health decline, isolation, and death.

Populations in areas facing severe climatic disasters often seek divine intervention and interpret events through religious frameworks. Typhoons in the South Pacific and Monsoons in India are particular locations. As well, as noted above, the prospect of drought is ever-present. For minority groups in authoritarian regimes, religion often serves as a source of resistance and identity for minorities facing persecution. Similarly, people in precarious immigration statuses often rely on religious communities for both spiritual and material support in their new environments.

In conclusion, uncertainty often heightens the human need for meaning, belonging, and hope, which religion provides. Faith traditions across the globe offer structures for navigating life's unpredictability, from sacred rituals to community support systems, making them an integral part of many people's lives in uncertain situations.

4.      Uncertainty in General.

Uncertainty is all about the future and its prospects. There is little reference ever to uncertainty about the past, except perhaps by historians, analyzing disasters, and the like. Uncertainty about the future can vary significantly across different groups of people, influenced by factors such as socioeconomic conditions, political environments, health, and access to resources. In particular, changing conditions always affect a significant number in any population. Even scientists experience uncertainty when a new and highly effective theory is introduced. Mostly, they resist change. A relatively new source of uncertainty is climate change. While there is good science that climate change is underway, many are especially nervous about the validity of future climate projections, for which the science and mathematics are not nearly as convincing as should be to garner uncertainty.  In the paragraphs below, we consider some groups that often face heightened uncertainty about their futures.

Economically disadvantaged groups have limited financial resources, unstable employment, and lack of access to education or healthcare making it difficult to plan long-term. Included are low-income workers in precarious jobs, people experiencing homelessness, and individuals living in poverty in both developed and developing countries.

Refugees and displaced persons who face migration due to conflict, persecution, or natural disasters leave them uncertain about their safety, legal status, and future prospects. Examples include refugees fleeing war zones (e.g., Syrians) and internally displaced persons affected by climate or conflict.

Individuals in conflict zones endure political instability, violence, and lack of governance creating an unpredictable environment. Examples include civilians in war-torn regions like Afghanistan or Yemen, and children and young people growing up in conflict areas.

Indigenous communities face historical marginalization, land dispossession, and challenges in preserving cultural identities often leave indigenous populations in uncertain circumstances. Included are Amazonian tribes facing deforestation, and Arctic communities affected by climate change. Famines and plagues over the ages offer a historical connection.

Youth in transition economies experience high unemployment rates, lack of job opportunities, and rapidly changing job markets create uncertainty about career prospects. Examples are recent graduates in regions with stagnant economies (e.g., Southern Europe during financial crises) and young adults in areas affected by automation and globalization.

People with chronic illnesses or disabilities have uncertainty about their health, access to medical care, and financial stability can create significant anxiety about the future. We include patients with rare diseases awaiting new treatments, hopeful transplant patients, and individuals with disabilities in areas with inadequate social support.

The elderly without social support consists of aging populations in countries with insufficient pensions or social care systems that face uncertainties about their health, housing, and financial stability. Examples: Elderly individuals in rural areas with limited access to healthcare and aging populations in countries with economic challenges. On the other hand, younger people have uncertainties about their economic future, fitting in socially, their good looks, going to war, having possessions, and even the loss of their aging parents. Their parents also live with many uncertainties such as providing for their families, getting a raise or promotion, dealing with ethical and moral questions in their lives, raising their children, relationships with neighbors, keeping the car running, and making those ever-increasing payments.

The gig economy and freelance workers have irregular income, lack of benefits, and minimal job security contributing to a volatile future. As well, minority groups in authoritarian regimes political oppression, surveillance, and lack of legal recourse contribute to uncertain futures. Finally, people in precarious immigration statuses have legal and bureaucratic challenges, along with the threat of deportation, creating significant uncertainty. Certainly, undocumented aliens and migrant workers are included.

5.      Uncertainty in Sports.

Professional sports figures face numerous uncertainties, stemming from both their professional lives and personal circumstances. These uncertainties often shape their careers, mental health, and overall outlook on life. Many areas of uncertainty for sports figures are present for all, even us amateurs, while others apply to the big stars. Indirectly and not to be underestimated, viewing sports provides temporary relief from the uncertainties of the fans.  Let's make a short list of some problems faced by athletes.

1.      Injuries: Athletes face the constant risk of injuries that could sideline them temporarily or end their careers prematurely. A dedication to body management is key, though requiring constant work. Tennis professionals, just warming up, undergo the equivalent of a full workout for most of us.

2.      Skill Decline: Physical and mental performance can fluctuate, and aging often diminishes an athlete's abilities over time. Some uncertainty about when to retire is always present, considering sports careers are rather short. The question, “What to do next,” nags at many. 

3.      Competition: The unpredictability of opponents' performance or emerging talents poses challenges. As well, facing a new player evokes other uncertainties. The requirements of maintaining a high level of confidence alone create its own uncertainties.

4.      Daily Performance: Anyone who only works out knows there are good days and bad days in sports. For a big match, the player often just doesn’t know what kind of day it may be.

5.      Short Career Spans: Most professional athletes have relatively short careers compared to other professions, leading to uncertainty about life after retirement.

6.      Post-Career Opportunities: Transitioning to a new career, such as coaching, broadcasting, or business, is not guaranteed and is often uncertain. Aside from coaching, another skill altogether, the athlete’s future may look bleak for many.

7.      Earnings Fluctuation: While some athletes earn substantial salaries, their income is often tied to their performance, endorsements, and marketability, which can change suddenly.

8.      Mismanagement: Poor financial planning or exploitation by agents or advisors can lead to long-term financial insecurity, instability, and hence uncertainty.

9.      Reputation Management: Sports figures are under constant public scrutiny, and any misstep, on or off the field, can damage their image.

10.  Pressure to Perform: High expectations from fans, sponsors, and teams can create significant stress and uncertainty about meeting those demands.

11.  Trades and Transfers: Athletes often face uncertainty about being traded, transferred, or released, which can disrupt their professional and personal lives.

12.  Chronic Health Issues: Intense physical activity can lead to long-term health issues, such as concussions or joint problems.

13.  Mental Health Challenges: Athletes frequently face stress, anxiety, and depression due to high expectations, performance pressures, and public criticism.

14.  Relationships: Demanding schedules and public attention can strain personal relationships and family dynamics.

15.  Economic Changes: Economic downturns or shifts in sponsorship markets can affect athletes' earnings and opportunities.

16.  Doping Allegations: Even false accusations can severely damage an athlete's career and reputation.

17.  Legal Disputes: Athletes may face lawsuits, contractual disagreements, false allegations, or other legal challenges.

In conclusion, sports figures, even though they may have tremendous seasons, they operate in a highly dynamic and unpredictable environment. They live on a tightrope.  The uncertainties they face extend beyond the field, influencing their careers, personal lives, and long-term well-being. Balancing these challenges requires resilience, adaptability, and often, a strong support system. Many turn to or evoke religious principles, others to drugs. For example, athletes like Tim Tebow (Christianity), Muhammad Ali (Islam), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Islam) openly integrated their faith into their public personas and careers. It’s common to see athletes pray before or after games, point to the sky after scoring, or thank God during interviews. Such acts are often expressions of gratitude or seeking guidance. Many athletes rely on their faith to cope with the pressures of competition, injuries, and personal challenges. Religion can provide a sense of purpose, motivation, and resilience. Some athletes often credit their faith for helping them overcome adversity, such as recovering from setbacks or maintaining focus amidst distractions. Some athletes face criticism for overt displays of religiosity, with detractors arguing that sports should remain secular. This short outline illustrates those even at the top of their game live with constant uncertainty.

 

6.      Uncertainty of Students.

Students face various uncertainties that affect their academic, personal, and future lives. These uncertainties, mostly psychological, stem from their evolving roles, expectations, and transitions into adulthood. Here are the primary uncertainties students encounter, given in a bullet list as we did for sports, in the interest of brevity.

1.      Grades and Assessments: Students often worry about their ability to perform well in exams, assignments, and projects. They sometimes express shock when no test retakes are available. They sometimes take seriously their professor’s sometimes distant approach to helping and with inquiries.

2.      Learning Challenges: Difficult subjects, lack of understanding, or mismatched teaching methods can create anxiety about academic success. Often students will promise themselves to study outrageous hours every day and soon become exhausted, magnifying uncertainty about success.

3.      Competitiveness: High competition among peers for limited opportunities, scholarships, or placements can amplify uncertainty.

4.      Career Choices: Uncertainty about selecting the right career path or field of study is common. Much peer pressure is in play here, with decisions often common between friends. Many college departments never tell students how to get jobs or if a major in their subject yields good job prospects.

5.      Job Market: Concerns about the availability of jobs, economic conditions, and competition add to their stress. A problem yes, but only in the endgame, when graduation is near. So compounded upon everything else is the uncertainty of getting a job.

6.      Romance. Navigating relationships while balancing academic responsibilities can be uncertain and stressful. Entering their 20s many students find themselves confronted with all the uncertainties of love, now mixed with careers, politics, religion, and other factors. These can cause unlimited disruptions to study routine and consequently grades.

7.      Skill Relevance: Rapid changes in technology and industries make students uncertain about whether their skills will remain relevant.

8.      Education Costs: Paying for tuition, books, and other expenses can be a significant source of uncertainty, especially for those relying on loans or scholarships, and particularly part-time jobs.

9.      Debt: Many students worry about repaying student loans and achieving financial independence after graduation. For some, however, debt is a “tomorrow” problem that emerges only after graduation.

10.  Faculty. Faculty can tend to be serious scholars, not exactly ready to engage in friendly conversation. They are much like the boss you may have in just a few years. Learning how to approach and engage faculty is a challenge not every student learns.

11.  New Relationships: Building and maintaining friendships can be challenging, especially in new environments like college. It is like everyone is new and this is intimidating.

12.  Family Expectations: Pressure from parents or guardians to meet high expectations often creates stress. They may mention costs often, and college costs can be steep.

13.  Stress and Anxiety: Students often experience mental health issues due to academic and social pressures. Loneliness carries much uncertainty. Popularity has always been an issue for students. In high school, it was more-or-less settled. In college, a much larger pool of people, and loss of popularity may become an uncertainty for those who enjoyed it previously but a relief for others.

14.  Fear of Failure: The possibility of not meeting goals or disappointing others is a significant source of worry.

15.  Self-Confidence: Many students struggle with self-doubt, questioning their abilities and potential. Many students are unaware that simply a solid program of study will boost confidence no end.

16.  New Environments: Transitioning to a new school, college, or city involves adapting to unfamiliar surroundings, people, and systems. For some, this is extremely difficult.

17.  Independence: Many students find it challenging to manage time, finances, and responsibilities as they become more independent. Independence may be a lifetime uncertainty, with some simply floating along for decades.

18.  Economic Conditions: Global or local economic instability affects job prospects and financial security.

19.  Political or Social Issues: Social unrest, changes in education policies, or political instability can add to students’ worries. Many see alternative political enterprises and become both convinced and unconvinced of their efficacy – creating a quandary.

20.  Physical Health: Students may face uncertainties regarding their health, especially during pandemics or in high-stress environments.

21.  Campus Safety: Concerns about safety, harassment, or violence in academic institutions are prevalent and frightening.

In summary, students face a multitude of uncertainties as they navigate academic, personal, and societal challenges. This becomes a heavy load for the unprepared student. Many religions maintain youth ministries to help students living in a new world so alien and different from family life. Most enter college totally unaware of what they are facing and suddenly are confronted with a host of uncertainties. It is overwhelming for a small percentage, particularly those with close family bonds. These uncertainties often shape their decision-making, resilience, and outlook on life. A strong support system, clear guidance, and adaptability can help students manage these uncertainties, though with varying effectiveness.

7.      Conclusions.

While uncertainty is a shared human experience, the degree to which it impacts people's lives is shaped by external circumstances and access to resources, as well as their relative states of mind. Uncertainty is a constant companion to us all, from our youngest years until old age. Each and every activity has its own special subset of uncertainties. Moreover, for many a strong faith and support system can help. Nonetheless, with or without religion addressing some of these uncertainties often requires systemic changes and targeted support. Schools hire counselors; teams hire sports psychologists. Corporate management, aware of and addressing employee uncertainties, is one step closer to greater productivity.  Finally, for uncertainty, there is no universal answer, solution, method, or trick available.

© 2024

---

[1] You may appreciate your next cup of tea a little more, knowing that many tea workers (mostly women) die from snake bite every year.