First Blog

We all expect Black Swans in our lives; we just don't know what they will be. This is how we survive. We now even write about them, predict them, and warn about them. But they are unlimited in magnitude, and thus we cannot regress events to any mean. Tricky, at least that what the Coronavirus tells me. Consider. This virus exploded upon the earth, claiming many lives and economic disaster.   It now seems to linger, just hanging about like some serpent waiting to strike.   Staying alert, we can control it a bit, but by nature modern humans are not alert. They take chances; they expect good outcomes; they feel mostly invulnerable. Moreover, staying alert would cause changes in all our lives we don’t want. With no vaccine forthcoming and with the virus not mutating to a harmless relative, we may have trouble ahead. Hopefully, this problem will be solved, but the next Black Swan is on the way, the nature of which we know not, from where we know not, and delivered how we k

Mankind has many enemies, not the least of which is himself.  What is remarkable is the list of enemies crosses multiple scales of physical dimensions, psychological dimensions, and biological dimensions.  When added up, the enemies list is long with dangers striking from everywhere. The short list of sources includes himself, nature, species, toxins, microorganisms, and more. Many are new, with the list of enemies growing as do we.  For example, a list only thirty years ago would not include the prion (of mad cow disease fame). In fact, the more you know about the agency of humans the more enemies you can find, and they become ever more lethal. The more you know about our world, the more threats you can perceive. Enemies for the metallurgist, the biologist, the climatologist, the naturalist, and so on are in abundance. Reading this very general list, one may wonder how we make it through life. Compound this with companion lists at the various life stages, and your wonder expan

Grandma had another birthday approaching, and naturally people will ask her age.  So, she decided on a strategy.  She decided, "I will say I'm closer to 70 years old than 60." Question: How old is grandma? | | | | \ \ \ \ | | | | Answer: You are led to say she is between 65 and 70.  Her response guides you to this, but here is her clever deception.  In fact, with the information given, all you can say is she is older than 65. She could be 93, and the statement is still correct. Clever, tricky, still sharp is granny.

The TINA Effect Where do you NOT want to be? In a situation where you must act in a certain way and there is no alternative, like it or not. This can happen if you’ve been unemployed and along comes a job offer you know you don’t want but must take, like it or not. Other examples happen in relationships. You have a girlfriend and the relation is not working and you know the future is bleak. A break is needed. Similarly, you don’t respect your boss and you know there is no repair and thus no alternative but to part. Other times, you may need surgery badly – with no alternative. Many examples abound with friends and family, especially pertaining to the future. This situation has a name: The TINA effect – "There is no alternative." Originally created in business for portfolio management about where money should flow, it usually means that there is no other repository for money other than equity markets as opposed to bonds, gold, etc. But it is easily be applied

Dreams are the first steps of achievement.  Dreams are the basis of exceptionalism. You must dream it can happen even before you can begin to make it so. Dream for success.  It's not guaranteed, but without the dreams it will not happen.

EVEN MORE WORDS OF THE WEEK - Part II General terms. The terms below are used everyday, many in the operations of government. Unmasking – requests to identify American citizens who were part of an intelligence gathering operation on a foreign national. Normally, unmasking is against the law except for national security purposes, and then only by officials with very high security clearances (i.e. you can’t and I can’t). Bifurcation - a splitting of outcomes along two different paths contingent on particular circumstances. Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. In the everyday sense, this term is mostly used by politicians and other morons, seeking to sound intelligent. This term rarely used by those who actually use calculus. The original meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic, principally dealing the rates of change. Inflection Point – This is a point on a graph where the rate of the rate changes sign. So for example, if t

WORDS OF THE WEEK – From standard epidemiology textbooks and from comments by Drs. Fauci and Birx, we have the several new terms. Many of the terms involve “constants,” which in every model and are always approximated at the on set.   Even the constant of gravity. All the so-called models you hear about involve these constants, and that is why early models are often inaccurate. SIR model - Susceptible (those who can get it)-Infected (those who got it) -Removed (those who recovered). The SIR model is an equation that links these quantities. Important is there are constants of proportion for each disease most difficult to determine and usually approximated early in the epidemic (as we have sadly seen with COVID). Epidemics - are commonly associated with acute, highly-transmissible directly transmitted pathogens that either kills its host or induce strong protective immunity. Reproductive number R_0, average number of those newly infected from someone already infected Effect

I have just put up a piece on wisdom, what it is and how to get it. Find it at the link below. https://www.linkedin.com/in/g-donald-allen-420b0315/detail/recent-activity/documents/

Words of this week have all occurred in connection with the Coronavirus directly or its economic consequences indirectly.   Some are defined herein, while others can be easily referenced online. General terms Bifurcation (a splitting of outcomes along two different paths) Inflection point (think rate of change of the rate of change, when this changes from positive to negative or negative to positive, this is an inflection point. In auto driving, this means changing from accelerating to decelerating or the reverse.) Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. A term rarely used by those who use calculus. In the given sense, the term is mostly used by politicians and other morons. The other meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic. Model – a method, formula, or procedure for typing, addressing, or solving a problem. Cyclical stock Duplicity Gig worker Strategic oil reserve Future oil contracts Health and disease related

Politics W.H.O. W.T.O. CARES Act PPP Supply chain Tariff Prime rate Discount rate Bilateral/Unilateral ____ Modern Monetary Theory Coronavirus Intensive care and ICU, CCU PPE Social distancing Antibodies, antibody test Aerosol contagion Pathogen Adaptive immunity Coevolution Antigenic variant Antimicrobial resistance Antibody For those keeping a very close interest, we have… Symptomatology Testing panel Zoonosis Novel virus Interspecies transmission Phylogeny Phylogenetic tree Transmission chain Intermediate host (e.g. domestic ducks to chickens to …) Koch’s postulates Association vs. Causation

The next pandemic will be population saturation. The current world population is 7.7 billion.  Experts have estimated the maximum population the world can sustain is in the 9-10 billion range. This is population saturation, i.e. this is the largest sustainable population possible over time – barring disastrous conditions.   The current population growth is slightly greater than 1.0% annually. A simple calculation shows that the world population will reach the 9 billion mark before 2046 and the 10 billion mark by 2100.  These dates are therefore very close at hand. For high populations, as we have right now, a few implications seem obvious. High population implies viruses and bacteria may rapidly spread globally. The spread of COVID-19 is but one example.  The annual flu season which claims many more lives is another. Massive homelessness everywhere and an African decline of pesticide usage is bringing back Hepatitis C, Malaria, and TB, now drug resistant*. The challen

In ancient times the earth was said to be a flat slab riding on the back of a turtle and below that more turtles, one upon the other, all the way down.   The same is so today, but the scope is the full universe and all its parts, and the turtles are the mathematical and other models created for support and understanding.  We remain powerless against its forces, against its origin, passing, future, and even time. In fact, over the past few centuries the corps of turtles have changed abruptly every couple of decades. From Newton's mechanics to Heisenberg's uncertainty, to the current M-theory, the  turtle-carriers seems to be changing at an increaing rate.