THE NEXT PANDEMIC

The next pandemic will be population saturation.

The current world population is 7.7 billion. Experts have estimated the maximum population the world can sustain is in the 9-10 billion range. This is population saturation, i.e. this is the largest sustainable population possible over time – barring disastrous conditions. The current population growth is slightly greater than 1.0% annually. A simple calculation shows that the world population will reach the 9 billion mark before 2046 and the 10 billion mark by 2100. These dates are therefore very close at hand.

For high populations, as we have right now, a few implications seem obvious.

High population implies viruses and bacteria may rapidly spread globally. The spread of COVID-19 is but one example. The annual flu season which claims many more lives is another. Massive homelessness everywhere and an African decline of pesticide usage is bringing back Hepatitis C, Malaria, and TB, now drug resistant*. The challenges to medicine will be enormous. Proximity supports contagion.
High population makes the food supply unstable in the event of crop failures. Crop failures do occur all the time, but the world will need to be alert to these and compensate from banks of nutrition.
High population implies crowding, which leads to social interactive problems. Too much crowding leads to unusual and mostly not understood behavior of a given local population.
High population density requires rigid controls for health and food management. Requirements for sewage, air handling, and sanitary needs will drastically increase throughout large cities. Social distancing may become commonplace.
Rolling starvation will be reported regionally. Small droughts will cause small starvations and human skirmishes; large droughts will cause lots of both, the skirmishes becoming wars.

A saturated population implies regional famines and diseases annually. A saturated population implies educational systems will be overwhelmed. A saturated population indicates probable violent conflicts (wars) for resources such as water and arable land – like early in mankind’s history.

Therefore, the world will become even more global in the sense of wide governmental controls of food, fuel, air, and therefore wide social requirements and behavior. Those seeking more control wish their population to increase to the critical level where a more egalitarian society is unsustainable if not impossible. We see this in China. With a population of 1.4 billion, very strict social regulations are not only important but essential for basic human management. We see this as well in Europe, though the declining Caucasian population has allowed an increased immigrant population if only to satisfy needed labor levels. We are seeing this in the US with a strong political contingent insisting on open borders and welcoming uneducated masses to bulk up the population toward the same end.

*https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/4/3/98-0308_article

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