STILL MORE WORDS OF THE WEEK

Words of this week have all occurred in connection with the Coronavirus directly or its economic consequences indirectly. Some are defined herein, while others can be easily referenced online.

General terms

Bifurcation (a splitting of outcomes along two different paths)
Inflection point (think rate of change of the rate of change, when this changes from positive to negative or negative to positive, this is an inflection point. In auto driving, this means changing from accelerating to decelerating or the reverse.)
Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. A term rarely used by those who use calculus. In the given sense, the term is mostly used by politicians and other morons. The other meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic.
Model – a method, formula, or procedure for typing, addressing, or solving a problem.
Cyclical stock
Duplicity
Gig worker
Strategic oil reserve
Future oil contracts

Health and disease related

Sanitize
Disinfectant
UV effect
Ozone effect
Sunlight effect
Reproductive number (R₀ and pronounced R-naught) - average number of secondary infections from the first infection, i.e. if equal to 2, this means each infected person infects two additional people – on average. It is our current social distancing that seeks to reduce this value. When it is less than one, the disease fades away. When it's greater than one, the disease spreads.
Herd immunity
Core group (for infection)
High risk group
Age assortative – implying people of the same age associate together mostly. (e.g. child-child, child-parent, but not child-elderly)
Epidemiological triangle (host, pathogen, environment)
Direct vs Indirect disease transmission
Vectorborne transmission

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UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

Where is AI (Artificial Intelligence) Going?

How to view Artificial Intelligence (AI). Imagine you go to the store to buy a TV, but all they have are 1950s models, black and white, circular screens, picture rolls, and picture imperfect, no remote. You’d say no thanks. Back in the day, they sold wildly. The TV was a must-have for everyone with $250 to spend* (about $3000 today). Compared to where AI is today, this is more or less where TVs were 70 years ago. In only a few decades AI will be advanced beyond comprehension, just like TVs today are from the 50s viewpoint. Just like we could not imagine where the video concept was going back then, we cannot really imagine where AI is going. Buckle up. But it will be spectacular. *Back then minimum wage was $0.75/hr. Thus, a TV cost more than eight weeks' wages. -------------------------

Principles of Insufficiency and Sufficiency

The principles we use but don't know it. 1. Introduction . Every field, scientific or otherwise, rests on foundational principles—think buoyancy, behavior, or democracy. Here, we explore a unique subset: principles modified by "insufficiency" and "sufficiency." While you may never have heard of them, you use them often. These terms frame principles that blend theory, practicality, and aspiration, by offering distinct perspectives. Insufficiency often implies inaction unless justified, while sufficiency suggests something exists or must be done. We’ll examine key examples and introduce a new principle with potential significance. As a principle of principles of these is that something or some action is not done enough while others may be done too much. The first six (§2-6) of our principles are in the literature, and you can easily search them online. The others are relatively new, but fit the concepts in the real world. At times, these pri...

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