First Blog

Dreams are the first steps of achievement.  Dreams are the basis of exceptionalism. You must dream it can happen even before you can begin to make it so. Dream for success.  It's not guaranteed, but without the dreams it will not happen.

EVEN MORE WORDS OF THE WEEK - Part II General terms. The terms below are used everyday, many in the operations of government. Unmasking – requests to identify American citizens who were part of an intelligence gathering operation on a foreign national. Normally, unmasking is against the law except for national security purposes, and then only by officials with very high security clearances (i.e. you can’t and I can’t). Bifurcation - a splitting of outcomes along two different paths contingent on particular circumstances. Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. In the everyday sense, this term is mostly used by politicians and other morons, seeking to sound intelligent. This term rarely used by those who actually use calculus. The original meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic, principally dealing the rates of change. Inflection Point – This is a point on a graph where the rate of the rate changes sign. So for example, if t

WORDS OF THE WEEK – From standard epidemiology textbooks and from comments by Drs. Fauci and Birx, we have the several new terms. Many of the terms involve “constants,” which in every model and are always approximated at the on set.   Even the constant of gravity. All the so-called models you hear about involve these constants, and that is why early models are often inaccurate. SIR model - Susceptible (those who can get it)-Infected (those who got it) -Removed (those who recovered). The SIR model is an equation that links these quantities. Important is there are constants of proportion for each disease most difficult to determine and usually approximated early in the epidemic (as we have sadly seen with COVID). Epidemics - are commonly associated with acute, highly-transmissible directly transmitted pathogens that either kills its host or induce strong protective immunity. Reproductive number R_0, average number of those newly infected from someone already infected Effect

I have just put up a piece on wisdom, what it is and how to get it. Find it at the link below. https://www.linkedin.com/in/g-donald-allen-420b0315/detail/recent-activity/documents/

Words of this week have all occurred in connection with the Coronavirus directly or its economic consequences indirectly.   Some are defined herein, while others can be easily referenced online. General terms Bifurcation (a splitting of outcomes along two different paths) Inflection point (think rate of change of the rate of change, when this changes from positive to negative or negative to positive, this is an inflection point. In auto driving, this means changing from accelerating to decelerating or the reverse.) Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. A term rarely used by those who use calculus. In the given sense, the term is mostly used by politicians and other morons. The other meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic. Model – a method, formula, or procedure for typing, addressing, or solving a problem. Cyclical stock Duplicity Gig worker Strategic oil reserve Future oil contracts Health and disease related

Politics W.H.O. W.T.O. CARES Act PPP Supply chain Tariff Prime rate Discount rate Bilateral/Unilateral ____ Modern Monetary Theory Coronavirus Intensive care and ICU, CCU PPE Social distancing Antibodies, antibody test Aerosol contagion Pathogen Adaptive immunity Coevolution Antigenic variant Antimicrobial resistance Antibody For those keeping a very close interest, we have… Symptomatology Testing panel Zoonosis Novel virus Interspecies transmission Phylogeny Phylogenetic tree Transmission chain Intermediate host (e.g. domestic ducks to chickens to …) Koch’s postulates Association vs. Causation

The next pandemic will be population saturation. The current world population is 7.7 billion.  Experts have estimated the maximum population the world can sustain is in the 9-10 billion range. This is population saturation, i.e. this is the largest sustainable population possible over time – barring disastrous conditions.   The current population growth is slightly greater than 1.0% annually. A simple calculation shows that the world population will reach the 9 billion mark before 2046 and the 10 billion mark by 2100.  These dates are therefore very close at hand. For high populations, as we have right now, a few implications seem obvious. High population implies viruses and bacteria may rapidly spread globally. The spread of COVID-19 is but one example.  The annual flu season which claims many more lives is another. Massive homelessness everywhere and an African decline of pesticide usage is bringing back Hepatitis C, Malaria, and TB, now drug resistant*. The challen

In ancient times the earth was said to be a flat slab riding on the back of a turtle and below that more turtles, one upon the other, all the way down.   The same is so today, but the scope is the full universe and all its parts, and the turtles are the mathematical and other models created for support and understanding.  We remain powerless against its forces, against its origin, passing, future, and even time. In fact, over the past few centuries the corps of turtles have changed abruptly every couple of decades. From Newton's mechanics to Heisenberg's uncertainty, to the current M-theory, the  turtle-carriers seems to be changing at an increaing rate. 

Keywords of the week. If you're following the world-wide struggle against the coronavirus together with the usual politics, here are some words you have heard often. Intensive care and ICU Comorbidity Morbific Exempt Suspend Stockpile Ventilator Respirator Incubator Loan/grant Death and Infection rates? Doubling time Susceptible Asymptomatic Reopening Infectious Bipartisan Conference call Infrastructure Pandemic Epidemic Flatten the curve Therapeutic Vaccine Cure Guidance (from the CDC) Elective surgery Exponential growth Logarithmic growth* Model assumptions SIR type model (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) Phenomenological model Inflection point* *This term is often used incorrectly.

You want to be wise, the pride of your family or at the workplace.   So do I.   How to do this is a good question, but one that has a ready answer. You simply invent it.   Here we give methods with examples, all cooked up at home, none from the literature. We call it… Do-it-yourself wisdom .   You, too, can be wise with words. Recipes are available, and we take up a couple here.   For words, just pick two of them and mix in a counterbalance.   Or use one phrase to amplify another and then reverse.   Alliteration helps. Assiduity is not the goal.   Loose construction is better.   How the mind fills in what the words leave out is remarkable - and to your advantage. Think of a poem with just one line.   For example, let’s use “love” and “liberty,” and a few others. “Love is far less without liberty, and liberty is far less without love.” “The spirit enriches reason just as reason enriches the spirit.” “Knowledge needs intuition even more than intuition needs knowledge.” “Pray

The bridge from smart and wise to easy to see, but so difficult to cross. 

Peering Through the Corona Looking Glass The coronavirus will catalyze changes in society. It will cause future suspicion, caution, and fear of contagion. (We do not yet know if there are carriers of this disease. Compare Typhoid Mary.) There is more, mostly about life-style and government operations. The use of masks and gowns will become widespread, at least for a while. The elderly will be more careful; nursing homes will require medical tests prior to admission.   Hospital will require tests as well, with new patients possibly quarantined on their day of admission.   These provisions you would expect.   There are more, and they apply to all. Many students, now forced to stay at home to study, may never return, preferring another career direction for their lives. New employees will be given thorough medical exams. Many companies will discover that many of their functions are better served by workers at home, thus saving office costs. Supervision issues will be solved.