World series - cubs vs indians

Just as a FYI. The Indians just won game one in the series. One team had to win. Now, suppose the two teams are evenly matched meaning the probability of either team winning is 0.5. That is the odds are 50-50. True? Not true? You decide. Assume no home team advantage - a stretch of your beliefs, I know. With these assumptions, we can compute.

A. Suppose the Indians win the first game and both teams are evenly and stay evenly matched.
Then the probability of the Indians win the series (best 4 of 7) is about .65.

B. If Indians win the first two games,
Then the probability the Indians win the series is about .80.

C. If the Indians win the first three games,
Then the probability the Indians win the series is about .94.

Yet records indicate in the most recent twelve World series, the team winning the first game has a probability of winning the series is .91. (Compare with .65.) So, does this imply the team winning the first game is actually better (and it would have to be much better), or does it imply there are psychological factors involved? Anybody's guess. Check with your bookie. They have an uncanny sense.

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