Existential Threats

Biggest Existential Threats. Every day our leaders warn us, scare us, and threaten us about existential threats. These hint at caution: “Do something now or we will cease to exist.” What are they? For politicians: anything that will scare you into voting for them. For scientists: anything they believe may be risky. For religions: anything disabusing the scriptures. For the people: anything they believe to be dangerous in at the moment. There is much theory involved, projections into many decades ahead, life-style changes, political expediency, and more. Politicians love these things as they generate huge campaign war chests. Here’s the shortlist.

Climate change – includes global warming, changing animal habitats, enlarged deserts, increased carbon dioxide, eventual degradation of livable area, an increase of disease, rising temperatures, arctic melting, etc. Recall, in the 70s, it was all about global cooling.

Pandemics – usually highly contagious diseases spread by crowding and/or enhanced by decreased resistance, devastation by an incurable disease (e.g. Ebola), escape of organisms from biological laboratories, viral and bacterial mutations, consequences of starvation.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) – includes algorithms that can find remarkable patterns, predictions of voting patterns, hyper-targeting for advertising, analysis of data oceans of information about all, tracking of individual movements, ordering of citizens on compliance criteria, use of imaging to determine location, work-space monitoring, stock market control. Elon Musk (yes, Mr. Tesla) thinks AI is the big one.

Drones – delivery of ordinance, disease, and xxx, tracking or spying on people, enhancing police state control, air space control dangers. This is just a small part of universal surveillance, where we are all monitored by cameras. Even now, our cell phones track our every move.

War – the oldest events of sweeping historical importance, including contests between superpowers, minor powers possessing devastating weapons, wars in regions containing vital resources (e.g. oil), wars with potential of sweeping across vast regions - all of which imply massive death, massive diasporas, massive starvation, massive pollutants, massive waste of resources.

Black Swans – the unknown unknowns, that simply happen, such as a volcanic eruption, a tsunami, an unexpected revolution, an errant state’s use of nuclear devices, an alien invasion, a totally new disease, and the old standby: an asteroid barreling toward earth. (Developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, interesting if you can handle his ego.)

Behavioral Science and Problem-Solving

I. I. Introduction. Concerning our general behavior, it’s high about time we all had some understanding of how we operate on ourselves, and it is just as important how we are operated on by others. This is the wheelhouse of behavioral sciences. It is a vast subject. It touches our lives constantly. It’s influence is pervasive and can be so subtle we never notice it. Behavioral sciences profoundly affect our ability and success at problem-solving, from the elementary level to highly complex wicked problems. This is discussed in Section IV. We begin with the basics of behavioral sciences, Section II, and then through the lens of multiple categories and examples, Section III. II. ...

Where is AI (Artificial Intelligence) Going?

How to view Artificial Intelligence (AI). Imagine you go to the store to buy a TV, but all they have are 1950s models, black and white, circular screens, picture rolls, and picture imperfect, no remote. You’d say no thanks. Back in the day, they sold wildly. The TV was a must-have for everyone with $250 to spend* (about $3000 today). Compared to where AI is today, this is more or less where TVs were 70 years ago. In only a few decades AI will be advanced beyond comprehension, just like TVs today are from the 50s viewpoint. Just like we could not imagine where the video concept was going back then, we cannot really imagine where AI is going. Buckle up. But it will be spectacular. *Back then minimum wage was $0.75/hr. Thus, a TV cost more than eight weeks' wages. -------------------------

Principles of Insufficiency and Sufficiency

The principles we use but don't know it. 1. Introduction . Every field, scientific or otherwise, rests on foundational principles—think buoyancy, behavior, or democracy. Here, we explore a unique subset: principles modified by "insufficiency" and "sufficiency." While you may never have heard of them, you use them often. These terms frame principles that blend theory, practicality, and aspiration, by offering distinct perspectives. Insufficiency often implies inaction unless justified, while sufficiency suggests something exists or must be done. We’ll examine key examples and introduce a new principle with potential significance. As a principle of principles of these is that something or some action is not done enough while others may be done too much. The first six (§2-6) of our principles are in the literature, and you can easily search them online. The others are relatively new, but fit the concepts in the real world. At times, these pri...

First Blog

Search This Blog