The Character of Wicked Problems

Introduction. How to cure cancer? How to repair climate problems[i]? How to fix the educational establishment? How to resolve medical healthcare issues? How can I solve the problems of my country? All of these are among the monumental problems of our day. All are highly complex, with hundreds or thousands of factors, and with no clear solutions. All are even hard to define in precise terms. To make matters worse, all depend on one’s point of view. This is the world of wicked problems.

We put aside all these problems except those about our country since the others involve rather technical analyses, because the problems of the country are familiar to us all, and we know many of the issues. Moreover, we agree these problems are long unsolved but have differing views on how to solve them. And this is exactly the point! The diagram below illustrates the variegated nature of wicked problems with just three factors among many.

Wicked Problems

Wicked Problems. The problems of this country or any country are very much the same worldwide though emphases differ. Of course, simple answers can be offered such as more money, peace, love, equity, and all the other usual answers. They sound wonderful but are beyond our capacity to implement. These problems cannot solely be solved by mathematics, statistics, or science of any kind. They do have a name. They are called wicked problems[ii], the bane of all planners everywhere. These are a special breed of problems often with no (clear) solution or even with multiple solutions. Only answers may be offered, usually with no guarantee of success. Let’s be clear. Big-time mathematics problems are not wicked. Nor are most science problems. Nor are legal problems. They are difficult, some even nearly impossible, but not wicked in the scheme of our discussion.

Wicked problems are complex, but complex problems are merely big, usually with clear goals for a solution but so big it takes a massive effort to solve. For example, the problem to land astronauts on the moon in 1969 was highly complex, clear in most respects, and sectioned into manageable components. The construction of the Hoover Dam is another example. Contrast these with World War II, where while the goal was clear, most aspects of how to do it were vague.

There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem, but they do have characteristics - far, far beyond math class. Remarkably, they can involve mathematics, statistics, psychology, politics, and every other endeavor. It is a certainty that wicked problems involve multiple factors, each essentially orthogonal to the other, and each possibly offering alternative solutions.

We are accustomed to simple problems involving only one tool, maybe two, for analysis, such as statistics. Problems such as putting a man on the moon were highly complex, but almost all the sub-problems involved technical issues. Problems of melanoma involve purely medical issues even down to the cellular or DNA levels. Problems with the climate are substantially technical but involve emissions, solar reflectivity, historical trends, forest depletion, blight, oceanic deep channels, pollution, greenhouse gases, and more. Indeed, there are so many more that not a single scientist can comprehend them all.

Characteristics of Wicked Problems. Remarkably, though wicked problems have been with us for centuries, they have only been academically recognized in the past fifty years. Dozens of characteristics have been formulated for wicked problems. We highlight the list with just ten of them.

1. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad - if you’re lucky. The maxim, “The lesser of two evils,” comes to mind.
2. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem.
3. Every solution to a wicked problem is a "one-shot operation"; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial and error, every attempt counts significantly.
4. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively describable) set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan.
5. Every wicked problem is essentially unique. Yet, solutions are not unique.
6. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem.
7. Wicked problems have conflicting values, uncertainty, time variability, ambiguity, political and cultural constraints, and resistance to solutions,
8. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem's resolution.
9. There are multiple, often conflicting constraints.
10. The starting point for an intervention may alter the full solution. That is, it may affect all subsequent steps.

Each of these points ought to have some further explanation. For brevity, consider only the last one, #10. Before solving any problem, you must begin with a set of what’s considered the basis of what is true, and what has priority These are the axioms of your system. For example, in planning a beltway around a city, you may begin with land procurement, the costs, the rights, and so forth. Alternatively, you may begin with proximity to factories to service traffic. Or, you may want overpasses in certain places or dozens of other criteria. Whatever foremost axiom you select will affect most other aspects of the beltway. In this way, a manifold of solutions to the beltway problem is generated. Which to select conveys the wickedness of such planning problems.

Another wicked problem is closer to home, thousands of them. In early 2025 California, forest and land management policies came into conflict with the safety of homes from fire, which in turn is a problem of risk vs. insurance vs. ruin. The problem was apparent to many but the conflicting values between state directives and safety and insurance companies, a wicked problem, was not resolved and disaster occurred. The Pacific Palisades in Los Angeles was destroyed by fire.

Most large municipalities and all states have full-time planning commissions that work for years on such problems, suggesting solution after solution, cost analyses of great complexity, and, of course, the concomitant politics of each. The mathematics part comes in basically with the analysis when costs are significant, and then the mathematics usually involves complex models sometimes involving millions of variables each containing its specific assumptions. Wicked embedded within wicked? Yes.

I’ve hesitated to make any general laws about wicked problems, but I cannot resist including just one.

The more politics are involved, the more wicked the problem becomes.

Wicked problems venture into the world of the known unknowns and even unknown unknowns as work begins. Review them carefully, and then you can begin to solve the problems of your country. (Appendix A gives a brief description of wicked problem solutions formed as a systematic process.) They will take you beyond politics or race, and past materialism or religion. They will take you to an undiscovered country. You will learn why small countries (< 5 million) can easily solve problems that large countries (> 50 million) find truly wicked, if not impossible. For a tiny but quite wicked example, we’ve recently seen what to do about COVID-19 became nearly an impossible problem in the USA, but Sweden, with a smallish homogeneous population, simply pronounced a solution – which remarkably worked. The USA solution could be expressed simply as turgid – and wrong. In Appendix B, we attempt to show how wicked problems fit into the scheme of all the others.

Conclusions. We think in terms of tribal problem solutions when we live in a society of millions. We think in terms of single-cell organizations when we live in multi-cell environments. We think in terms of family needs when we must address full subcultures of wants. We talk about unity when we encourage division. We love quick solutions, usually within election cycles or congressional terms. We think in terms of simplicity when we should also consider wickedness if not impossibility.

Our country and leaders seek simple solutions, usually expressed by acronyms or slogans. Simplicity is easy to suggest and gets votes but has never worked well during any era. One rule of thumb is to beware of simplistic solutions to wicked problems.

A final, but most interesting question is whether wicked problems can be solved using these new AI (Artificial Intelligence) Large Language Models such as GEMINI or ChatGPT? Have no doubt, it will be tried if it hasn’t already. BTW, these AI codes are powerful, yet testing any of them and you’ll quickly see they give wrong answers and even non-existent references. Their math and statistical functionality is weak, but improving.

Appendix A. Solving Wicked Problems. The basic program for solving problems is standard, though expressed in many ways. Listed below, note they are cast for single problems, even those of some complexity[iii].

1.     Perceptually recognize the problem.

2.     Identify relevant information that applies to the current problem.

3.     Compare the problem to others for which you a solution is available.

4.     Eliminate irrelevant and misleading information.

5.     Develop heuristics.

For wicked problems, this prescription must be modified. Not surprisingly, each subproblem requires a similar analysis as above, though now they are part of a collective. The collective requires far more analysis, primarily about interconnections. A summary of the steps follows.

1.     Identify a list of disparate subproblems.

2.     Identify relevant information that applies to each problem.

3.     Compare problems to others for which a solution is available.

4.     Eliminate irrelevant and misleading information.

5.     Determine interrelations between each problem.

6.     Determine which have multiple solutions and how solutions are related within and among others.

7.     Determine a priority of conditions most important to solve.

8.     Analyze interconnections between priorities. Eliminate bias.

9.     Develop heuristics and then algorithms.

10.  Determine stopping times for algorithms, i.e. when to stop solving.

What is important in solving big problems is to create algorithms on solutions and now the order of solutions. This brings up the essential point of what type of algorithms should be used. In solving each component, there is almost always an optimization criterion involved. Namely, to minimize cost, time to solution, inconvenience, or simplicity. As well, it is important to maximize efficacy, and these are only a few of the desiderata. One important type of algorithm to avoid is usually termed greedy[iv], about which there is a huge literature. Greedy algorithms optimize the steps locally or sequentially, whereas it is important to consider the whole set of problems and how the algorithms fit together. Greedy algorithms often lead to far more expensive and less desirable outcomes. For wicked problems, there are problems embedded within problems, and concealed by other problems.

Appendix B. The world of problems.

To put wicked problems into context, we look at a world of problems, many of which you and society face every day. Simultaneously, we classify problems by types. Let’s begin with basic types of problems, more or less, together with what is required to solve them.

Major types of problems

1.     Simple – known methods for solutions,

2.     Complicated – known unknowns, car breakdown, building a plant,

3.     Complex -  need to be solved and resolved, predictor-corrector, continuing solutions,

4.     Chaotic – unexpected and major, tsunami, explosion, riot, unstable, evolution,

5.     Wicked – multiple or no solutions with no clear solution methods, and vague goals.

Each of these types, while important, are not ordered by difficulty. Most scientists and mathematicians work only on Simple problems, most of which are anything but easy to solve. To solve any of these requires basic knowledge about the types of the types required for methods and techniques including

·       Ill-defined and/or well-defined,

·       Hypothesis-driven problem-solving,

·       Issue-driven problem-solving,

·       Iterative, i.e. requiring continuingly improved solutions,

·       Creative path or design thinking.

Problems examples from easy to wicked.

To put common problems into context, consider a hierarchal assortment of problems in varying degrees of difficulty toward complexity. Included are many problems each of us has encountered in growing, working, and living. Included are generally who solves them. This is designed to illustrate how wicked problems, our soup de jour, fit into the scheme.

1.     Basic math/school subjects – Individual

2.     Group learning – Small groups

3.     Themes - Individual

4.     Reports – Individual, Small groups

5.     Term papers - Individual

6.     Masters thesis - Individual

7.     Dissertation – Individual

8.     Family – Family

9.     Basic, applied research – Individual, Groups

10.  Computational – Groups

11.  Research – Groups of 1, 2,…

12.  Complexity – Multidisciplinary teams 2-50

13.  Social – Teams, Governments, Individuals, 2-500

14.  Wicked – Multidisciplinary  Organizations, 5-5000

15.  Super wicked– Multidisciplinary Organizations, 5-5000

Social problems can be subdivided into categories, each requiring a different mindset, different techniques, and different solution sets. The expert at one type may be ineffectual at the others. Yet, almost all coexist simultaneously. Moreover, solving one may exacerbate another. Taken together or in combinations may result in wicked problems, sometimes impossible to solve.

·        Economic issues.

·        Social disorganization.

·        Public health.

·        Age discrimination.

·        Social inequality.

·        Education and public schools.

·        Work and occupations.

·        Environmental racism

 

Family problems are not minor. They can be basic or complicated, and some families are simply not equipped to solve them. These are problems for which our only solution methods begin with personal preference and experience. Yet, each new family is not, nor can be not, molded within specific structures. For some families, some problems can only be described as chaotic.

 

·       Chronic pain

·       Internal conflicts and rules

·       Moving

·       Happiness and cohesiveness

·       Separation or divorce

·       Parenting issues

·       Pressure at work or school

·       Unemployment and financial

·       Illness or disability

·       Death of a family member

·       Drug, alcohol, and gambling addiction

·       Domestic violence

Toward the specific, we now look at the problems of particular social organizations. The reader can classify which are wicked, complex, complicated, or any of our categories. Note, corporations are product-driven operations with a high degree of social organization.  In general, the larger the social group and the more the number of diverse stakeholders, the greater the chance problems are wicked.

·       Schools – homework, learning, social, etc,

·       Tribal - food, water, shelter, healthcare, rites, leadership, and taboos,

·       Village - poor infrastructure such as roads, bridges, sewers, and electricity, opportunities, conflicts, displacement, pollution, loss of traditional culture, migration, hopelessness, stratification, and despair,

·       Corporations – regulatory compliance, competition, economic downturns, natural disasters, political instability, technology, societal expectations, social unrest, public relations, efficiency, output, worker issues, and human resources.

·       Institutions - funding, inefficiency, bureaucracy, corruption, inaccessibility, unaccountability, inertia, ineffectiveness,

·       City large – poverty, pollution, crime, housing, traffic issues, education, healthcare, governance, corruption, infrastructure, environment,

·       Country – poverty, unemployment, inequality, corruption, crime, environmental issues, conflict, governance, energy, and healthcare.

Scale substantially instantiates wickedness. For a country, almost all big problems are wicked. Politicians and activists are ill-equipped, uninterested, and overloaded.  Hence, the rise of regulations, not solutions. That problems are with us is surely evident. That problems dominate and determine our lives is the lesson. Once this is accepted, we can adapt our efforts away from anger, rules, or despair and toward comprehensive understanding and then solutions.

 

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[i] Levin, Kelly; Cashore, Benjamin; Bernstein, Steven; Auld, Graeme (23 May 2012). "Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change". Policy Sciences. 45 (2): 123–152.

[ii] There is quite a literature on wicked problems, easily searched. Hundreds of papers have been published. For example, Wikipedia has an informative page full of even more dire content including convergent and divergent solutions, and even the next level of wickedness, the super wicked problem, wherein solutions offered to one wicked problem generate an even more wicked problem. Moreover, the solvers of some wicked problems are at times the creators of the same.

[ii][ii] Allen, G Donald, Challenges to Computing, Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication (IJRITCC), Volume 2 Issue 11, 3346-3351, 16 November 2014.

 

[iv] Black, Paul E. (2 February 2005). "greedy algorithm". Dictionary of Algorithms and Data Structures. U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Retrieved 17 August 2012.

 

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