First Blog

Words of this week have all occurred in connection with the Coronavirus directly or its economic consequences indirectly.   Some are defined herein, while others can be easily referenced online. General terms Bifurcation (a splitting of outcomes along two different paths) Inflection point (think rate of change of the rate of change, when this changes from positive to negative or negative to positive, this is an inflection point. In auto driving, this means changing from accelerating to decelerating or the reverse.) Calculus – Meaning “My strategy for addressing this problem is …. A term rarely used by those who use calculus. In the given sense, the term is mostly used by politicians and other morons. The other meaning of “calculus” is as an advanced mathematical topic. Model – a method, formula, or procedure for typing, addressing, or solving a problem. Cyclical stock Duplicity Gig worker Strategic oil reserve Future oil contracts Health and disease related

Politics W.H.O. W.T.O. CARES Act PPP Supply chain Tariff Prime rate Discount rate Bilateral/Unilateral ____ Modern Monetary Theory Coronavirus Intensive care and ICU, CCU PPE Social distancing Antibodies, antibody test Aerosol contagion Pathogen Adaptive immunity Coevolution Antigenic variant Antimicrobial resistance Antibody For those keeping a very close interest, we have… Symptomatology Testing panel Zoonosis Novel virus Interspecies transmission Phylogeny Phylogenetic tree Transmission chain Intermediate host (e.g. domestic ducks to chickens to …) Koch’s postulates Association vs. Causation

The next pandemic will be population saturation. The current world population is 7.7 billion.  Experts have estimated the maximum population the world can sustain is in the 9-10 billion range. This is population saturation, i.e. this is the largest sustainable population possible over time – barring disastrous conditions.   The current population growth is slightly greater than 1.0% annually. A simple calculation shows that the world population will reach the 9 billion mark before 2046 and the 10 billion mark by 2100.  These dates are therefore very close at hand. For high populations, as we have right now, a few implications seem obvious. High population implies viruses and bacteria may rapidly spread globally. The spread of COVID-19 is but one example.  The annual flu season which claims many more lives is another. Massive homelessness everywhere and an African decline of pesticide usage is bringing back Hepatitis C, Malaria, and TB, now drug resistant*. The challen

In ancient times the earth was said to be a flat slab riding on the back of a turtle and below that more turtles, one upon the other, all the way down.   The same is so today, but the scope is the full universe and all its parts, and the turtles are the mathematical and other models created for support and understanding.  We remain powerless against its forces, against its origin, passing, future, and even time. In fact, over the past few centuries the corps of turtles have changed abruptly every couple of decades. From Newton's mechanics to Heisenberg's uncertainty, to the current M-theory, the  turtle-carriers seems to be changing at an increaing rate. 

Keywords of the week. If you're following the world-wide struggle against the coronavirus together with the usual politics, here are some words you have heard often. Intensive care and ICU Comorbidity Morbific Exempt Suspend Stockpile Ventilator Respirator Incubator Loan/grant Death and Infection rates? Doubling time Susceptible Asymptomatic Reopening Infectious Bipartisan Conference call Infrastructure Pandemic Epidemic Flatten the curve Therapeutic Vaccine Cure Guidance (from the CDC) Elective surgery Exponential growth Logarithmic growth* Model assumptions SIR type model (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) Phenomenological model Inflection point* *This term is often used incorrectly.

You want to be wise, the pride of your family or at the workplace.   So do I.   How to do this is a good question, but one that has a ready answer. You simply invent it.   Here we give methods with examples, all cooked up at home, none from the literature. We call it… Do-it-yourself wisdom .   You, too, can be wise with words. Recipes are available, and we take up a couple here.   For words, just pick two of them and mix in a counterbalance.   Or use one phrase to amplify another and then reverse.   Alliteration helps. Assiduity is not the goal.   Loose construction is better.   How the mind fills in what the words leave out is remarkable - and to your advantage. Think of a poem with just one line.   For example, let’s use “love” and “liberty,” and a few others. “Love is far less without liberty, and liberty is far less without love.” “The spirit enriches reason just as reason enriches the spirit.” “Knowledge needs intuition even more than intuition needs knowledge.” “Pray

The bridge from smart and wise to easy to see, but so difficult to cross.