Skip to main content

Bad News for Tennis Pros

Tennis in 2017.  I am well into a study of tennis professionals, looking over their careers.  Here are some preliminary conclusions.  They may apply to your very own world – particularly if you vie for a top spot at whatever you do. 

Looking at top-100 ranked pros over the last twenty years, we note there are only four hovering at the top.  They are Andy Murray (now #1), Novac Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal.  Also we include Stan Warinka, currently ranked #3. Here are a couple of observations about the top players.  All entered the top 100 in the lower half.  (Many were ranked below number 100 for a year or so after turning pro.)  These four have been at the top for years now.

All rankings are based strictly on tournament performance and how they performed.  Sports writers notwithstanding, did not play a role.

After a season or two with low rankings they emerged to the very top echelon right away.  They stayed there year-after-year. For example, from 2005 to present*, Djokovic was ranked 83 16 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 2.   This is typical.  There is one exception, Warinka, who happily proves the rule.  He actually worked his way up in rankings year-by-year.  Over the same years his rankings were 55 30 36 13 13 21 17 17 8 4 4 4 3. 

For Murray, Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal, the rapid-rise pattern is sustained. The rule seems to be that most players at the very top achieve their status rapidly after turning professional.  Others linger in the second tier ranks.  For example, the record of Thomas Berdych, a great player, over the period 2004 to present  is 45 25 13 14 20 20 6 7 6 7 7 6 10 13.

Tennis history indicates Berdych has reached his peak.  This is not to say being ranked at #6 or #10 is bad, it is to say there is appears to be no upward trajectory in sight. Current players, and relative newcomers that may have a shot at the top are Krygios and Sock, and possibly Raonic.  However, current data is inconclusive, as all are newcomers. 

The lesson here is that if you’re going to be a very top player, you get there quickly and then stay there.  BTW, there are over 1000 current players all hoping for a top spot.  More to come.


*All rankings are recored at year’s-end.  Note also, the maximal professional career of a tennis player is about twenty years, mostly less. 
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Please Comment.

Popular posts from this blog

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

  Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1.       Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty.   This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...
Post a Comment
Read more

Problem Solving? Then Find Those Gaps

  Problem Solving - Finding Gaps 12/28/2024 Introduction. Solving complex problems often arises from the presence of gaps in knowledge, resources, understanding, or perspectives. These gaps introduce uncertainty, ambiguity, or constraints, making solutions difficult to achieve. Below, we explore the primary types of gaps that complicate problem-solving and their implications. Many are of the technical, informational, theoretical, and social nature. You may discover some of these gaps are also sources of uncertainty in problem-solving, in that they supply us with another list of things that can go wrong based on something missing. Gaps also form a type of impossible problem, that will be discussed in a later chapter. Finally, this essay is about all problems and solutions, not just those of science. Contents Comprehension Gaps Consistency Gaps Solution-Type Gaps Invisible Gaps   Knowledge and Evidence Gaps   Methodological and Technological Gaps Ethical and Cult...
Post a Comment
Read more

CERTAINTY IS ALSO AN EMOTION

  Certainty is also a Feeling Certainty is often viewed as a mental state tied to knowledge and confidence, but it also functions as a feeling with distinct emotional and physiological components. While it arises from cognitive processes, certainty also has a subjective and emotional quality that makes it more than just a rational judgment. It provides a sense of assurance and security that shapes human experience in profound ways. Emotional Dimension . At its core, certainty evokes emotions that influence how we perceive and interact with the world. When someone feels certain, they often experience relief, comfort, or empowerment. These emotions are particularly strong when uncertainty or doubt is resolved, offering a sense of closure. For example, solving a complex problem or having a belief validated by evidence brings not just intellectual satisfaction but also emotional reassurance. Subjectivity. Certainty is inherently personal and subjective. It depends on individual...
Post a Comment
Read more