Bad News for Tennis Pros

Tennis in 2017.  I am well into a study of tennis professionals, looking over their careers.  Here are some preliminary conclusions.  They may apply to your very own world – particularly if you vie for a top spot at whatever you do. 

Looking at top-100 ranked pros over the last twenty years, we note there are only four hovering at the top.  They are Andy Murray (now #1), Novac Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal.  Also we include Stan Warinka, currently ranked #3. Here are a couple of observations about the top players.  All entered the top 100 in the lower half.  (Many were ranked below number 100 for a year or so after turning pro.)  These four have been at the top for years now.

All rankings are based strictly on tournament performance and how they performed.  Sports writers notwithstanding, did not play a role.

After a season or two with low rankings they emerged to the very top echelon right away.  They stayed there year-after-year. For example, from 2005 to present*, Djokovic was ranked 83 16 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 2.   This is typical.  There is one exception, Warinka, who happily proves the rule.  He actually worked his way up in rankings year-by-year.  Over the same years his rankings were 55 30 36 13 13 21 17 17 8 4 4 4 3. 

For Murray, Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal, the rapid-rise pattern is sustained. The rule seems to be that most players at the very top achieve their status rapidly after turning professional.  Others linger in the second tier ranks.  For example, the record of Thomas Berdych, a great player, over the period 2004 to present  is 45 25 13 14 20 20 6 7 6 7 7 6 10 13.

Tennis history indicates Berdych has reached his peak.  This is not to say being ranked at #6 or #10 is bad, it is to say there is appears to be no upward trajectory in sight. Current players, and relative newcomers that may have a shot at the top are Krygios and Sock, and possibly Raonic.  However, current data is inconclusive, as all are newcomers. 

The lesson here is that if you’re going to be a very top player, you get there quickly and then stay there.  BTW, there are over 1000 current players all hoping for a top spot.  More to come.

*All rankings are recored at year’s-end.  Note also, the maximal professional career of a tennis player is about twenty years, mostly less.