The Future Paradox

While most of us believe the future is unknown, we pay good money and believe those who predict what it will be. This is the future paradox.

The future is unknowable. Yet, crowds of people have formed predicting what it will bring. Even more remarkable is that all of us know the first, yet many believe the second. The prediction class blossoms in December and then fade in the new year – to write more books.

We crave any word from our politicians, our scientists, our futurists, our astrologers. How can they know, being they are often wrong? It’s like predicting earthquakes, often made and often wrong.

The predictor class is not unlike the insect. During the early year they are in the larval stage, proceeding to the pupae stage around midyear, and finally in the last months take their adult form full of future predictions. Laying their eggs, usually on TV, they prepare for the new year, ready to grub about, ready for their adult stage. If they are correct on only a couple of predictions, they are incubated for the next season

Comments

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

The Devil and Artificial Intelligence

In Stephen Vincent Benét’s allegory, The Devil and Daniel Webster , the Devil comes to collect a soul, armed with the fine print of a contract and the inevitability of human weakness. Daniel Webster, the great orator, wins the day not by denying humanity’s flaws, but by appealing to its higher nature. The story warns us about the bargains we make and the price we might pay when power comes too easily. Consider the allegory of Goethe’s “ Faust” as a substitute if Benét’s story is unfamiliar. Today, Artificial Intelligence stands in a position uncannily similar to the Devil in the old tale. It offers dazzling speed, vast knowledge, and seemingly miraculous powers, always at just the right moment when we are tired, overwhelmed, or greedy for an advantage. It whispers I can solve your problems, do your work, make your life easier; just trust me. Playing the role of Daniel Webster is only these few pages, but it is you or me that have signed the contract. The “gifts” AI offers ar...

Principles of Insufficiency and Sufficiency

The principles we use but don't know it. 1. Introduction . Every field, scientific or otherwise, rests on foundational principles—think buoyancy, behavior, or democracy. Here, we explore a unique subset: principles modified by "insufficiency" and "sufficiency." While you may never have heard of them, you use them often. These terms frame principles that blend theory, practicality, and aspiration, by offering distinct perspectives. Insufficiency often implies inaction unless justified, while sufficiency suggests something exists or must be done. We’ll examine key examples and introduce a new principle with potential significance. As a principle of principles of these is that something or some action is not done enough while others may be done too much. The first six (§2-6) of our principles are in the literature, and you can easily search them online. The others are relatively new, but fit the concepts in the real world. At times, these pri...

First Blog

Search This Blog