A New Explanation of the Trump Assassination Attempt

Trump Assassination Attempt: Conspiracy, Incompetence, or Something Else?

The recent assassination attempt on Trump's life at a rally was a shocking and horrific event. Various explanations have been suggested, from a sudden turn of Trump's head or a bad aim to the US Secret Service's (USSS) inadequate coverage of the event. This has lent credence to conspiracy theories. Another popular theory is that the USSS has become lazy and incompetent under the Biden administration.

However, there's a third possibility: induction. The USSS covers numerous events for high-ranking government officials and former presidents, with almost nothing untoward ever happening. This repeated uneventfulness can lull agents into a false sense of security, leading them to assume that no problems will arise at future events. This principle of induction is something we all use constantly. We generalize that the sun will rise every morning, the tides will come in every day, and the weather will change with the seasons. Similarly, when no security incidents occur at presidential events repeatedly, it can lead to complacency. Eventually, a catastrophe occurs.

The great physicist Richard Feynman observed this principle when he was appointed to the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster commission in 1986. Feynman identified that the shuttle directors made the mistake of thinking that this flight was just like all the others. They didn't account for the freezing ambient temperature at blast-off, which caused the failure of the primary and secondary O-ring seals in a joint in the shuttle's right solid rocket booster. Induction can be a slow train to disaster that eventually arrives.

Remedy: All future USSS events should have a detailed checklist to be completed before, during, and after the event. This way, radio/text/phone communication, personnel coverage, visualization, intelligence, security coverage, and other conditions will be fully documented, serving as constant reminders to the in-situ security teams. While the consequences of human induction can never be completely eradicated, this could help mitigate the risks.

Behavioral Science and Problem-Solving

I. I. Introduction. Concerning our general behavior, it’s high about time we all had some understanding of how we operate on ourselves, and it is just as important how we are operated on by others. This is the wheelhouse of behavioral sciences. It is a vast subject. It touches our lives constantly. It’s influence is pervasive and can be so subtle we never notice it. Behavioral sciences profoundly affect our ability and success at problem-solving, from the elementary level to highly complex wicked problems. This is discussed in Section IV. We begin with the basics of behavioral sciences, Section II, and then through the lens of multiple categories and examples, Section III. II. ...

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

Mediocrity

Once of the worst things that can happen to a young person is to be told their mediocre performance is good. For me, I was told the opposite, that my efforts would end me in failure. That was a spur that dug in deep. I would prove him wrong. And I did. Do not praise mediocrity, no matter how much it makes you feel good or your target.

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