The Rattlesnake and the Risk

When you are under the strike by a rattlesnake, the smart money says be very quiet, be motionless, and otherwise not even blink, lest the snake will strike. The alternative money says pull your revolver and shoot the snake. But is there time to shoot? You are at extreme risk. Yet, you don’t know what it will do.

What is your assessment? You are smart, you are practical, and you can see both solutions as viable.

The answer is subtle, and not to be found in textbooks or at the knee of a learned guru. The answer is measured in fractions of a second, and with an intuition of what is best – at the instant of danger.

This is the issue with trade disputes and tariffs. What to do? The smart solution is to lay low, be quiet, and trust on a favorable outcome. The alternative is to take charge, apply the tariffs, and destroy the risk before near certain strike. So we have...

A. Play it safe and hope against risk?

B. Destroy the risk at peril?

Comments

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

CERTAINTY IS ALSO AN EMOTION

Certainty is also a Feeling Certainty is often viewed as a mental state tied to knowledge and confidence, but it also functions as a feeling with distinct emotional and physiological components. While it arises from cognitive processes, certainty also has a subjective and emotional quality that makes it more than just a rational judgment. It provides a sense of assurance and security that shapes human experience in profound ways. Emotional Dimension . At its core, certainty evokes emotions that influence how we perceive and interact with the world. When someone feels certain, they often experience relief, comfort, or empowerment. These emotions are particularly strong when uncertainty or doubt is resolved, offering a sense of closure. For example, solving a complex problem or having a belief validated by evidence brings not just intellectual satisfaction but also emotional reassurance. Subjectivity. Certainty is inherently personal and subjective. It depends on individual...

Lies, Deceit, and the National Agenda

The world you grew up in is no more. The world of reasonable honesty and reasonable lies has been replaced by abject dishonesty and blatant lies. Lies. Yes. People have always told them. You have told them; so have I. We need lies; they are a foundational structure of social living. They both deceive and protect. Children tell them to their parents to avoid consequences, like punishment. Adults tell them to their bosses, to enhance their position and/or avoid consequences of poor performance. Our bosses tell them to their boards to suggest business is good, the project is on target, or the detractors are wrong. The boards tell them to shareholders to protect their own credibility and most importantly, stock values. Our politicians tell lies to their constituents, though sometimes innocently with them not actually knowing much more than they've been told. They enhance their positio...

First Blog

Search This Blog