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Investing by Television


In retirement, I watch a lot of business shows.  Here the news is mostly factual, not given to political rhetoric - thankfully.  Most of the shows’ hosts bring in financial leaders to forecast, to project, to explain investment strategies, and otherwise discuss Wall Street comings and goings.  The comments vary, from bull to bear, and from optimistic to pessimistic, from data to anecdote

Almost without variation most financial strategists follow first order cause-effect policies.  The market does this, we do that.  Seldom do you see a strategist with an overall command of fiscal conditions.  Their methods are simple and ad hoc. Sometimes, it seems like there is a predictions club where all read what the others write.  This could be a CYA symptom, as they have high paying jobs and must at all times justify their salaries are well deserved.   Some filter their comments through their politics, but either way, it’s useless.

From time to time, they offer stock picks.  Listening and acting upon their advice is risky.  For example, Halliburton was recommended.  Sources indicated it to be a “buy.” I bought.  Down it has come.  In another, the stock Rewalk Robotics was recommended.  It was cheap.  I bought.  Down it went, but just lately it went to the sky, making me some money. 

Some know their stuff and just how complicated the investment business is.  You can just tell.  Often, because of this complexity, their remarks are difficult to follow.  Blackstone CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman is typical.  His message is complex and encompassing, but well worth distillation efforts. Fox host Charles Payne is another.  He grasps the difficulty and complexity of analysis. One can learn from these guys,  JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is another but he tends to speak in unhelpful (for me) generality. 

When you combine the crystal ball with data analysis, with gut feelings, you typify business shows, and you accrue the results you might expect.

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