Lies, Damned Lies, and all That

Over a century ago, British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli penned,”There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” So true this is I’ve advocated for years my all students should take a Stat course. We’ve advanced and now it is safe to say there are

Lies, damned lists, statistics, and campaign promises.

You can tell because whenever a campaign promise is kept, it becomes actual news. Even the official remarks on it as though one finally happened. A regular flurry of press releases issue forth as if from a snow machine.

Remarkably, every election season most people vote for these promises knowing all the while they will not likely become reality. Elections, therefore, are the single greatest example of hope by mankind – or are they simply legalized gambling events? (You bet your future on outcomes you don’t expect. 😊)

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UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

The Devil and Artificial Intelligence

In Stephen Vincent Benét’s allegory, The Devil and Daniel Webster , the Devil comes to collect a soul, armed with the fine print of a contract and the inevitability of human weakness. Daniel Webster, the great orator, wins the day not by denying humanity’s flaws, but by appealing to its higher nature. The story warns us about the bargains we make and the price we might pay when power comes too easily. Consider the allegory of Goethe’s “ Faust” as a substitute if Benét’s story is unfamiliar. Today, Artificial Intelligence stands in a position uncannily similar to the Devil in the old tale. It offers dazzling speed, vast knowledge, and seemingly miraculous powers, always at just the right moment when we are tired, overwhelmed, or greedy for an advantage. It whispers I can solve your problems, do your work, make your life easier; just trust me. Playing the role of Daniel Webster is only these few pages, but it is you or me that have signed the contract. The “gifts” AI offers ar...

Principles of Insufficiency and Sufficiency

The principles we use but don't know it. 1. Introduction . Every field, scientific or otherwise, rests on foundational principles—think buoyancy, behavior, or democracy. Here, we explore a unique subset: principles modified by "insufficiency" and "sufficiency." While you may never have heard of them, you use them often. These terms frame principles that blend theory, practicality, and aspiration, by offering distinct perspectives. Insufficiency often implies inaction unless justified, while sufficiency suggests something exists or must be done. We’ll examine key examples and introduce a new principle with potential significance. As a principle of principles of these is that something or some action is not done enough while others may be done too much. The first six (§2-6) of our principles are in the literature, and you can easily search them online. The others are relatively new, but fit the concepts in the real world. At times, these pri...

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