Terrorist Conspiracy Theory

This is a conspiracy theory about large-scale terrorist attacks.  Beware of such theories as they are mostly plausibility arguments gleaned from a sequence of events.  So, be suspicious and critical.  We do our theory by the numbers.

1.  First of all, it seems the big terrorist organizations such as ISIS can strike at will really wherever and whenever they so choose.  They have “soldiers” willing to give their lives in the cause of terror.  These are not occasional, random attacks, but well planned logistically and technically.  They could strike somewhere in the world frequently, perhaps even weekly, but do not.  Why?

2. These organizations also have a strong survival instinct.  They know that weekly attacks will result in the overwhelming response even from the most globalist of countries to strike back, annihilating their bases, their funding, and their very organizations.   

3. So, they face an optimization problem, which is to survive while creating a recurrent sense of fear.   Probably no one anywhere goes to a major event these days without thinking of the possibility of a bombing. Almost all discount it because such are relatively rare.  This means some timing between major terrorist events is necessary.  Already, London is habituated to such by the current Mayor’s comments that such events are now a part of our lives.  Live with them is the admonition. What was once unthinkable has become expected. You know, the new normal.

Now, for the conspiracy part of this discussion.  Big events such as in Nice, Brussels, Manchester, London, Berlin, San Bernardino and others must be timed and coordinated so as not to exceed a frequency that will demand a serious response. This is it.  The implication is terrorist’s attacks are centrally organized and executed. The plan is to create sustained and growing fear and continue to do so safely from their homes, claiming responsibility especially when the perpetrators are killed. One desired result is to encourage the emergence of leaders who sympathize with terrorist demands. 

Calculate a four to twelve month differential between attacks.   The next big one will likely come this fall, but who knows where?