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Do They have the Nuc?

For years now, various parties both inside the USA and out have been claiming the Iranians are getting close to having sufficient fissionable materials to build a nuclear bomb. From 2012 onwards this party or that has made claims of three months, six months, up to a year or more to reach that milestone.  In the meantime, Iran seems to have increased their numbers of functioning centrifuges - needed to separate the heavier versions of uranium.  Lately, estimates are two-three months, six months, and up to a year or more.  Hmmm...

So far, no one has suggested the Iranians already have enough such material. Do the math.  Even accounting for the wildest estimates from 2012 on, it seems certain or certainly plausible the milestone has been reached.  I conjecture Iran is working now toward multiples of critical mass materials.  Of course, they won't tell us, and even if we (i.e. the govt) knows, they won't tell us. Other countries, particularly those with sophisticated intelligence capacities, won't tell us.

Politically, having enough materials for just one bomb really doesn't do it. Sure, they can take out Tel Aviv, Damascus, Istanbul, Beirut, or whatever target is top on their list.  But then what?  Without further deterrents in their arsenal, they are in deep trouble.  So how many do they need?  I don't know, but it seems to be a numbers game with dozens of permutations of what is and what could be.

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