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Thoughts XIII - models and catastrophes



Models.  The deep skinny on model building based on the application of analysis is this:  Make it as simple as possible, but make it as complex as necessary.   Tall order and a laudable goal, though achieving both simplicity and complexity is a challenge.  We have a min-max problem, difficult to solve.  Nonetheless, it is attempted by all. Each suffers at the expense of the other.  The question I pose here is whether this is possible?  Both goals are vague and meeting either is virtually impossible to measure.   
So, depending on the interpreter, the model will be seriously affected.  This is the case even with the most scientific of problems.  When the solution goal is unclear, the situation vague, the problem is wicked, or the course of action is fuzzy, there arise conflicts on what model to build.  Deformed models are produced.   Once a model is in place, it has a systemic existence.  It has invested adherents.  It doesn’t die easily no matter how wrong it may be.
So, what should be done?  Forget simplicity; forget complexity. Try the following. 


1.      List all the factors affecting the problem
2.      Prioritize them as to importance.
3.      Build a model addressing the factors in order of their importance.
4.      Test the model for feasibility and acceptability. 
5.      Revise the model. 
6.      Repeat steps 1-5 several times. 

Catastrophes.  Americans are seduced by local catastrophes and react to create permanent changes. Americans like the extreme solution. 
  • Business profits are down for a quarter.  Make a policy change. Fire the CEO and get another.
  • School performance is down for a couple of years. Make a policy change.  Change the entire curriculum.
  • World temperatures increase for a couple of years.  Cry global warming.
  • Coal is a polluting menace.  Make a policy change. Eliminate the viability of coal for the generation of electricity.
  • A gunman shoots several people. Make a policy change.  Eliminate guns.
There is no argument about any of the events mentioned.  All occur.  It is the magnitude of the reaction toward sweeping changes that is challenged.  Too many changes chase after the symptom with little analysis of the cause.
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