Skip to main content

Thoughts XIII - models and catastrophes



Models.  The deep skinny on model building based on the application of analysis is this:  Make it as simple as possible, but make it as complex as necessary.   Tall order and a laudable goal, though achieving both simplicity and complexity is a challenge.  We have a min-max problem, difficult to solve.  Nonetheless, it is attempted by all. Each suffers at the expense of the other.  The question I pose here is whether this is possible?  Both goals are vague and meeting either is virtually impossible to measure.   
So, depending on the interpreter, the model will be seriously affected.  This is the case even with the most scientific of problems.  When the solution goal is unclear, the situation vague, the problem is wicked, or the course of action is fuzzy, there arise conflicts on what model to build.  Deformed models are produced.   Once a model is in place, it has a systemic existence.  It has invested adherents.  It doesn’t die easily no matter how wrong it may be.
So, what should be done?  Forget simplicity; forget complexity. Try the following. 


1.      List all the factors affecting the problem
2.      Prioritize them as to importance.
3.      Build a model addressing the factors in order of their importance.
4.      Test the model for feasibility and acceptability. 
5.      Revise the model. 
6.      Repeat steps 1-5 several times. 

Catastrophes.  Americans are seduced by local catastrophes and react to create permanent changes. Americans like the extreme solution. 
  • Business profits are down for a quarter.  Make a policy change. Fire the CEO and get another.
  • School performance is down for a couple of years. Make a policy change.  Change the entire curriculum.
  • World temperatures increase for a couple of years.  Cry global warming.
  • Coal is a polluting menace.  Make a policy change. Eliminate the viability of coal for the generation of electricity.
  • A gunman shoots several people. Make a policy change.  Eliminate guns.
There is no argument about any of the events mentioned.  All occur.  It is the magnitude of the reaction toward sweeping changes that is challenged.  Too many changes chase after the symptom with little analysis of the cause.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Please Comment.

Popular posts from this blog

Behavioral Science and Problem-Solving

I.                                       I.                 Introduction.                Concerning our general behavior, it’s high about time we all had some understanding of how we operate on ourselves, and it is just as important how we are operated on by others. This is the wheelhouse of behavioral sciences. It is a vast subject. It touches our lives constantly. It’s influence is pervasive and can be so subtle we never notice it. Behavioral sciences profoundly affect our ability and success at problem-solving, from the elementary level to highly complex wicked problems. This is discussed in Section IV. We begin with the basics of behavioral sciences, Section II, and then through the lens of multiple categories and examples, Section III. II.     ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Principles of Insufficiency and Sufficiency

   The principles we use but don't know it.  1.      Introduction . Every field, scientific or otherwise, rests on foundational principles—think buoyancy, behavior, or democracy. Here, we explore a unique subset: principles modified by "insufficiency" and "sufficiency." While you may never have heard of them, you use them often. These terms frame principles that blend theory, practicality, and aspiration, by offering distinct perspectives. Insufficiency often implies inaction unless justified, while sufficiency suggests something exists or must be done. We’ll examine key examples and introduce a new principle with potential significance. As a principle of principles of these is that something or some action is not done enough while others may be done too much. The first six (§2-6) of our principles are in the literature, and you can easily search them online. The others are relatively new, but fit the concepts in the real world. At times, these pri...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Lemming Instinct

  In certain vital domains, a pervasive mediocrity among practitioners can stifle genuine advancement. When the intellectual output of a field is predominantly average, it inevitably produces research of corresponding quality. Nevertheless, some of these ideas, by sheer chance or perhaps through effective dissemination, will inevitably gain traction. A significant number of scholars and researchers will gravitate towards these trends, contributing to and propagating further work along these established lines. Such a trajectory allows an initially flawed concept to ascend to the status of mainstream orthodoxy. However, over an extended period, these prevailing ideas invariably fail to withstand rigorous scrutiny; they are ultimately and conclusively disproven. The disheartening pattern then reveals itself: rather than genuine progress, an equally unvalidated or incorrect idea often supplants the discredited one, swiftly establishing its own dominance. This cycle perpetuates, ensurin...
Post a Comment
Read more