Skip to main content

Thoughts XIII - models and catastrophes



Models.  The deep skinny on model building based on the application of analysis is this:  Make it as simple as possible, but make it as complex as necessary.   Tall order and a laudable goal, though achieving both simplicity and complexity is a challenge.  We have a min-max problem, difficult to solve.  Nonetheless, it is attempted by all. Each suffers at the expense of the other.  The question I pose here is whether this is possible?  Both goals are vague and meeting either is virtually impossible to measure.   
So, depending on the interpreter, the model will be seriously affected.  This is the case even with the most scientific of problems.  When the solution goal is unclear, the situation vague, the problem is wicked, or the course of action is fuzzy, there arise conflicts on what model to build.  Deformed models are produced.   Once a model is in place, it has a systemic existence.  It has invested adherents.  It doesn’t die easily no matter how wrong it may be.
So, what should be done?  Forget simplicity; forget complexity. Try the following. 


1.      List all the factors affecting the problem
2.      Prioritize them as to importance.
3.      Build a model addressing the factors in order of their importance.
4.      Test the model for feasibility and acceptability. 
5.      Revise the model. 
6.      Repeat steps 1-5 several times. 

Catastrophes.  Americans are seduced by local catastrophes and react to create permanent changes. Americans like the extreme solution. 
  • Business profits are down for a quarter.  Make a policy change. Fire the CEO and get another.
  • School performance is down for a couple of years. Make a policy change.  Change the entire curriculum.
  • World temperatures increase for a couple of years.  Cry global warming.
  • Coal is a polluting menace.  Make a policy change. Eliminate the viability of coal for the generation of electricity.
  • A gunman shoots several people. Make a policy change.  Eliminate guns.
There is no argument about any of the events mentioned.  All occur.  It is the magnitude of the reaction toward sweeping changes that is challenged.  Too many changes chase after the symptom with little analysis of the cause.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Please Comment.

Popular posts from this blog

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

  Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1.       Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty.   This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...
Post a Comment
Read more

Problem Solving? Then Find Those Gaps

  Problem Solving - Finding Gaps 12/28/2024 Introduction. Solving complex problems often arises from the presence of gaps in knowledge, resources, understanding, or perspectives. These gaps introduce uncertainty, ambiguity, or constraints, making solutions difficult to achieve. Below, we explore the primary types of gaps that complicate problem-solving and their implications. Many are of the technical, informational, theoretical, and social nature. You may discover some of these gaps are also sources of uncertainty in problem-solving, in that they supply us with another list of things that can go wrong based on something missing. Gaps also form a type of impossible problem, that will be discussed in a later chapter. Finally, this essay is about all problems and solutions, not just those of science. Contents Comprehension Gaps Consistency Gaps Solution-Type Gaps Invisible Gaps   Knowledge and Evidence Gaps   Methodological and Technological Gaps Ethical and Cult...
Post a Comment
Read more

CERTAINTY IS ALSO AN EMOTION

  Certainty is also a Feeling Certainty is often viewed as a mental state tied to knowledge and confidence, but it also functions as a feeling with distinct emotional and physiological components. While it arises from cognitive processes, certainty also has a subjective and emotional quality that makes it more than just a rational judgment. It provides a sense of assurance and security that shapes human experience in profound ways. Emotional Dimension . At its core, certainty evokes emotions that influence how we perceive and interact with the world. When someone feels certain, they often experience relief, comfort, or empowerment. These emotions are particularly strong when uncertainty or doubt is resolved, offering a sense of closure. For example, solving a complex problem or having a belief validated by evidence brings not just intellectual satisfaction but also emotional reassurance. Subjectivity. Certainty is inherently personal and subjective. It depends on individual...
Post a Comment
Read more