Skip to main content

Understanding $16 Trillion of Debt

I don't understand how much $16 trillion ($16T*) of debt is.  So, to help myself, I break it down to terms I can understand.

  • There are about 254,000,000 registered vehicles in this country (2009 data).  Big number this is.  But dividing number into $16T would give a valuation of about $69,000 for each of them.  This is somewhat higher than the average cost of automobiles on the road. Another way to put it is to say the US national debt could replace the entire US fleet of automobiles with, for example, brand new fully equipped Lexus ES460's.  Nice cars.  Make mine pearl white.
  • The total of state budgets in 2010 was about $666B.  Dividing into $16T gives about 24.  This means the $16T national debt could completely cover all state budgets for about 24 years.
  • The total annual foreign aide budget of the US is reckoned to be about $54B.  Dividing this into $16T gives about 296, meaning that the national debt of the US could cover all foreign aid for almost three centuries.
  • The population of the United States is currently estimated at 312,780,968. Dividing this into $16T gives the current encumbrance to each citizen of about $51,000.
  • In 2008,  64.3 billion gallons of gasoline were consumed in this country.  It is surely higher now.  At $3.50 per gallon this implies a total cost to the US consumer of about $225B.  Dividing into the $16T yields about 71, implying the US national debt could pay for all gasoline consumed in the USA for the next 71 years - assuming of course annual consumption remains constant.
  • In the month of October 2012, the monthly cost of home food for a family of four (liberal plan from the USDA) was about $1100, making the annual cost to be about $13,200.  Multiplying this by the possible numbers of families of four (total population divided by four), the total annual home food costs to all citizens are roughly $1T.  Dividing this into $16T implies, in round terms, that the the US national debt could pay all home food costs for the next 15+ years.   If we all ate with the USDA thrifty plan, the $16T US national debt could pay all home food costs in the United States for the next 29 years.
That was fun.  So, $16T is a really big amount.  I still don't understand it much beyond that. 

* T = trillion, B = billion

There is a foundational lesson in all this.  The number 16T in dollars or any other measure is fundamentally beyond the comprehension of most of us, like me.  And I work with big numbers all the time. What is not taught in the schools these days, what is not in the formal curriculum anywhere,what is fully unknown to almost everyone, is just what these really big number mean.  That is within their personal context.  Sure, it is easy to say that the speed of light (180K mps) translates into 180K(mps) x 60(s/m) x (60(m/h) x 24(h/d) x 365(d/y) = 5,865,696,000,000 miles.  (~6 trillion miles) Who really knows what this means - in a visceral sense?  Not I.

Getting  back to the $16T above we caution two principle groups (going a bit political here - sorry).  I contend that neither side really understands anything about the magnitude of $16T.

1. The Republicans: No one really understand how much money this is.  Do you?  Don't compare with the GDP.  This is like making a comparison of a quantity people don't understand with a quantity people don't understand.  It you wish to make a point, explain to folks how much money this is.  Do it in terms they understand.  My goodness, don't explain in analogy to Greece.  Most people don't know where Greece is, much less care about Greek circumstances.  Greece is not a trump card.
2. The Democrats:  Be cautious about borrowing more money.  Understand the magnitude of what is already encumbered. Understand this amount in terms you understand. Understand the profound effort required for the pay-back.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Behavioral Science and Problem-Solving

I.                                       I.                 Introduction.                Concerning our general behavior, it’s high about time we all had some understanding of how we operate on ourselves, and it is just as important how we are operated on by others. This is the wheelhouse of behavioral sciences. It is a vast subject. It touches our lives constantly. It’s influence is pervasive and can be so subtle we never notice it. Behavioral sciences profoundly affect our ability and success at problem-solving, from the elementary level to highly complex wicked problems. This is discussed in Section IV. We begin with the basics of behavioral sciences, Section II, and then through the lens of multiple categories and examples, Section III. II.     ...

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

  Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1.       Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty.   This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

Robin Hood and Cliven Bundy

  Actor Herbert Mundin, playing Munch in the 1938 film The Adventures of Robin Hood (starring Errol Flynn) is charged by Prince John's troops of slaying a royal deer in the royal Sherwood forest.  The punishment is death.  Though the events of this film are a portrayal of events dating to the 15th century, they became by the 19th century a "robbing from the rich for the poor" theme so often depicted in other film genres. The William Tell legend is another. The plot is simple.  A poor man desperate to survive tastes the forbidden fruits owned by the authority, and is condemned. I would love to hear this event debated on the current TV news shows.  On the one hand, Munch would be a champion in service to his family.  On the other hand, his legal rights are restricted by legal authority. so, the argument would proceed.  Legal scholars cite statutes chapter and verse, while others would root for the common man.  Fast forward to 2014. Parallels ...