First Blog

Introduction. Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a black swan event refers to an extremely rare, unpredictable, and unexpected event that has significant and widespread consequences [1] . More details will unfold in the discussion below. Possibly, the unpredictable and unexpected components dominate the true nature of black swan events.   The Black Swan Paradox . If you're expecting a black swan event, can it happen? Possibly NO .  The reason is that black swan events are  not  expected and not predictable. Your antennae are up in your world. You expect anything and everything. For example, if you expect an asteroid to strike the earth next year, it’s terrible but not a black swan event. On the other hand, if your fiance dumps you at the altar, that would be quite the black swan event, though of the personal variety and not particularly widespread.   Examples. No theory of black swan events exists, or principles for that matter. Perhaps one will develop. In the meantime, it may

 In gift giving, the greater joy accrues to the giver. 

 

  Tips for Retirement You’re going to retire, plan to retire, or you are retired.   What to do? First, I’m retired and seem to be doing ok, so far. I’d like to offer a few tips – generally from my working plan.   1.        Know yourself, and especially the little tricks you play on yourself. 2.        Save money. Build your nest egg while you’re still working. This takes years of discipline, self-denial, and self-limitations. Examples: Limit new car purchases and fancy vacations. 3.        To have any level of comfort, you’ll probably need at least a million stashed in some funds that earn interest. Assume about 3% annual inflation long into the future. Plan to live on the interest and hopefully dividends. Try not to draw down the principal. Finally, living only on Social Security cannot be fun. 4.        Plan activities. You’ll need them foremost. You are less likely to take up some activity you don’t do already, no matter how much you like the idea. Develop several plans

  Santa Claus in Four Parts You believe in Santa Claus You don't believe in Santa Claus. You are Santa Claus. You look like Santa Claus.

  The same allowances given by propaganda are as well the traditional method of justifying slavery.

  You don’t believe in any god. Okay. But you are spiritual. That is, you have an essence. You may call it a soul. (Few are the atheists who believe themselves to be merely electro-mechanical engines.) What happens to it after you are departed? Not heaven nor hell, surely. Then what? What’s worse than hell?   Nothingness, a place or no place, where there is no vision while it’s neither dark nor light. There’s nothing to touch, to feel, to hear, or to see.   There can be no experience. There is no cold nor warmth. There are no sounds. There is no pleasure; no safety nor danger; no sanity nor the opposite. There is no thirst nor hunger. There is no looking ahead nor back, nor the passage of time. There are no hopes or expectations. There is only an eternal now, filled with void, framed by emptiness, floating in a world of nothing. You cry out, even for pain. There is none. Nothingness may be populated by millions, though each is unconscious and alone from the other. You are neither ali

If someone (not me, actually) has your cell phone number, the specific information they can obtain about you can vary depending on several factors: 1. Public Records: They might access publicly available information associated with your phone number, such as your name, address (often a general location rather than an exact address), and sometimes your email address. 2. Social Media: If your phone number is linked to your social media accounts (like Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram) and your privacy settings are not stringent, they might find your profiles and any information you have shared publicly. 3. Online Directories: Some online directories or databases might have information linked to your phone number, which could include your name, approximate location, and any information you've provided when registering with services using that number. 4. Data Breaches: In case your phone number has been part of any data breaches or leaks, someone might access information that was

 Innovation usually implies the search for something new, effective, and important. Many factors, dozens, contribute to innovation. Here are the top six. Open mindedness. (Approach) Constant absorption of new knowledge. (Building connections/frameworks) Ability to concentrate for long periods. (Necessary) Rapid rejection of poor ideas. (Key factor) Having a sustaining joy of problem-solving. (Experience) An active, intelligent, and coherent team. (A plus) ------------------- One potential problem with AI is that it locks in old knowledge and possibly rejects new knowledge – a consequence of learning algorithms.

This is a quote attributed to the Soviet dissident Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, author of The Gulag Archipelago : "The most terrifying force of death comes from the hands of Men who wanted to be left alone. They try, so very hard, to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know, that the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over. The moment the Men who wanted to be left alone are forced to fight back, it is a form of suicide. They are literally killing off who they used to be. Which is why, when forced to take up violence, these Men who wanted to be left alone, fight with unholy vengeance against those who murdered their former lives. They fight with raw hate, and a drive that cannot be fathomed by those who are merely play-acting at politics and terror. TRUE TERROR will arrive at these people's do

  How to view Artificial Intelligence (AI).  Imagine you go to the store to buy a TV, but all they have are 1950s models, black and white, circular screens, picture rolls, and picture imperfect, no remote. You’d say no thanks. Back in the day, they sold wildly. The TV was a must-have for everyone with $250 to spend* (about $3000 today). Compared to where AI is today, this is more or less where TVs were 70 years ago. In only a few decades AI will be advanced beyond comprehension, just like TVs today are from the 50s viewpoint. Just like we could not imagine where the video concept was going back then, we cannot really imagine where AI is going. Buckle up. But it will be spectacular.    *Back then minimum wage was $0.75/hr. Thus, a TV cost more than eight weeks' wages. ------------------------- 

  Advice, Bad Advice, and Damned Advice Don Allen   Everyone gives advice, and almost everyone takes it now and then. Advice, though, is inherently incoherent, inconsistent, and inaccurate.   Now and then, it can be critical. But even the stingiest, coldest, or most loving of us give it freely. A glossary follows but first consider a few examples.   ·         When you take advice, are you substituting another’s thinking for your own? ·         Sometimes I wish I followed my own advice. But nooooo! I took someone else’s advice. Wrong. ·         When you give advice and someone takes it, then are you not somewhat responsible for outcomes? ·         There have been times I rejected good advice because I didn’t like who was giving it. ·         Companies call in consultants to give advice, but the consultants seldom know the fine points of the business they are advising. People call in psychologists for the same reasons. ·         Ministers and priests are always giving