First Blog

Introduction. Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a black swan event refers to an extremely rare, unpredictable, and unexpected event that has significant and widespread consequences [1] . More details will unfold in the discussion below. Possibly, the unpredictable and unexpected components dominate the true nature of black swan events.   The Black Swan Paradox . If you're expecting a black swan event, can it happen? Possibly NO .  The reason is that black swan events are  not  expected and not predictable. Your antennae are up in your world. You expect anything and everything. For example, if you expect an asteroid to strike the earth next year, it’s terrible but not a black swan event. On the other hand, if your fiance dumps you at the altar, that would be quite the black swan event, though of the personal variety and not particularly widespread.   Examples. No theory of black swan events exists, or principles for that matter. Perhaps one will develop. In the meantime, it may

 In gift giving, the greater joy accrues to the giver. 

 

  Tips for Retirement You’re going to retire, plan to retire, or you are retired.   What to do? First, I’m retired and seem to be doing ok, so far. I’d like to offer a few tips – generally from my working plan.   1.        Know yourself, and especially the little tricks you play on yourself. 2.        Save money. Build your nest egg while you’re still working. This takes years of discipline, self-denial, and self-limitations. Examples: Limit new car purchases and fancy vacations. 3.        To have any level of comfort, you’ll probably need at least a million stashed in some funds that earn interest. Assume about 3% annual inflation long into the future. Plan to live on the interest and hopefully dividends. Try not to draw down the principal. Finally, living only on Social Security cannot be fun. 4.        Plan activities. You’ll need them foremost. You are less likely to take up some activity you don’t do already, no matter how much you like the idea. Develop several plans

  Santa Claus in Four Parts You believe in Santa Claus You don't believe in Santa Claus. You are Santa Claus. You look like Santa Claus.

  The same allowances given by propaganda are as well the traditional method of justifying slavery.

  You don’t believe in any god. Okay. But you are spiritual. That is, you have an essence. You may call it a soul. (Few are the atheists who believe themselves to be merely electro-mechanical engines.) What happens to it after you are departed? Not heaven nor hell, surely. Then what? What’s worse than hell?   Nothingness, a place or no place, where there is no vision while it’s neither dark nor light. There’s nothing to touch, to feel, to hear, or to see.   There can be no experience. There is no cold nor warmth. There are no sounds. There is no pleasure; no safety nor danger; no sanity nor the opposite. There is no thirst nor hunger. There is no looking ahead nor back, nor the passage of time. There are no hopes or expectations. There is only an eternal now, filled with void, framed by emptiness, floating in a world of nothing. You cry out, even for pain. There is none. Nothingness may be populated by millions, though each is unconscious and alone from the other. You are neither ali