First Blog

We all expect Black Swans in our lives; we just don't know what they will be. This is how we survive. We now even write about them, predict them, and warn about them. But they are unlimited in magnitude, and thus we cannot regress events to any mean. Tricky, at least that what the Coronavirus tells me. Consider. This virus exploded upon the earth, claiming many lives and economic disaster.   It now seems to linger, just hanging about like some serpent waiting to strike.   Staying alert, we can control it a bit, but by nature modern humans are not alert. They take chances; they expect good outcomes; they feel mostly invulnerable. Moreover, staying alert would cause changes in all our lives we don’t want. With no vaccine forthcoming and with the virus not mutating to a harmless relative, we may have trouble ahead. Hopefully, this problem will be solved, but the next Black Swan is on the way, the nature of which we know not, from where we know not, and delivered how we k

Mankind has many enemies, not the least of which is himself.  What is remarkable is the list of enemies crosses multiple scales of physical dimensions, psychological dimensions, and biological dimensions.  When added up, the enemies list is long with dangers striking from everywhere. The short list of sources includes himself, nature, species, toxins, microorganisms, and more. Many are new, with the list of enemies growing as do we.  For example, a list only thirty years ago would not include the prion (of mad cow disease fame). In fact, the more you know about the agency of humans the more enemies you can find, and they become ever more lethal. The more you know about our world, the more threats you can perceive. Enemies for the metallurgist, the biologist, the climatologist, the naturalist, and so on are in abundance. Reading this very general list, one may wonder how we make it through life. Compound this with companion lists at the various life stages, and your wonder expan

Grandma had another birthday approaching, and naturally people will ask her age.  So, she decided on a strategy.  She decided, "I will say I'm closer to 70 years old than 60." Question: How old is grandma? | | | | \ \ \ \ | | | | Answer: You are led to say she is between 65 and 70.  Her response guides you to this, but here is her clever deception.  In fact, with the information given, all you can say is she is older than 65. She could be 93, and the statement is still correct. Clever, tricky, still sharp is granny.

The TINA Effect Where do you NOT want to be? In a situation where you must act in a certain way and there is no alternative, like it or not. This can happen if you’ve been unemployed and along comes a job offer you know you don’t want but must take, like it or not. Other examples happen in relationships. You have a girlfriend and the relation is not working and you know the future is bleak. A break is needed. Similarly, you don’t respect your boss and you know there is no repair and thus no alternative but to part. Other times, you may need surgery badly – with no alternative. Many examples abound with friends and family, especially pertaining to the future. This situation has a name: The TINA effect – "There is no alternative." Originally created in business for portfolio management about where money should flow, it usually means that there is no other repository for money other than equity markets as opposed to bonds, gold, etc. But it is easily be applied