The ability to construct a theory is an intellectual achievement; the ability to recognize when it should be dumped is equally important. We have both. Here we look at dumping one.
Theories are everywhere. They serve as guideposts for our
thoughts, decisions, and thinking. They are at the foundations of knowledge, a
huge step beyond mere facts. Theories are the human instruments through which
we bundle knowledge into comprehensive expressions, and they shape how we
develop new knowledge. Moreover, it is often the attempt to support a theory
that leads to its elimination.
In science, we find the big ones, usually based on solid
evidence from observations. In your company or organization, there are internal
theories to keep things running smoothly. You have a bunch of personal
theories. You can even call your religion a theory.
No theories from antiquity still exist. Other theories
evolve, slowly changing over the years or even into entirely new theories. In
politics and economics, new theories, it seems, are created every day. Most
fade to extinction in time.
Here are eight signs that it’s time to dump a theory, often
called a hypothesis in reference to a particular aspect.
1. The theory is no longer predictive, or just doesn’t help.
2. The theory has multiple interpretations.
3. A better predictive theory has been introduced.
4. Dependence on untestable or non-empirical assumptions.
5. Failure of simplicity. Aesthetics.
6. Inconsistency with well-established background knowledge.
7. Direct empirical falsification.
8. Systematic methodological or data problems.
Look, it is not that important to cling to favorite theories
just because they feel comfortable. Doing so may lead to self-contradictory
confusion. When a theory fails one of the conditions above, it is usually
dumped. You should, too. It is perfectly acceptable to entertain a couple of
similar theories as you await new evidence supporting one or the other. Countless
personality theories have emerged over just the last century. Theories of consciousness have similarly been
proposed of late, including even those that posit the universe itself possesses
material intentionality.
Do not become a prisoner of your
own explanations. Theories are meant to serve understanding. When they cease to
do so, it is time to move on.
References
Duhem, P. (1954). The aim and
structure of physical theory (P. P. Wiener, Trans.). Princeton University
Press. (Original work published 1906)
Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure
of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press.
Lakatos, I. (1970). Falsification
and the methodology of scientific research programs. In I. Lakatos & A.
Musgrave (Eds.), Criticism and the growth of knowledge (pp. 91–196). Cambridge
University Press.
Popper, K. R. (1959). The logic of
scientific discovery. Hutchinson.
Quine, W. V. O. (1951). Two dogmas of empiricism. The Philosophical
Review, 60(1), 20–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2181906
Sober, E. (2015). Ockham's razors:
A user's manual. Cambridge University Press.
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