Favorite Abuses of Statistics

Many are the abuses of statistics. That one you see almost every day is about polling. Sample size, polling, bias, conclusions are all in the mix.

A. The natural desire to use correlation as causation. (Ubiquitous)

B. Unwitting bias in sampling and survey structure. (Consider polls.)

C. Applying multiple statistical tests until some significance is confirmed.

D. Using statistical tests with sample sizes too small. (Chi-square test for example).

E. Using factor analysis while not understanding what it does. (Looks good in a paper.)

F. Doing the study first and then creating the null hypotheses*. (This is statistics backward. Is it ok if everybody does it?)

G. Worst of all is taking statistical significance as a form of proof. (Remember that at the 0.05 level, 5% of all significance conclusions are wrong. Combine with the thousands of studies every year.)

*Personally guilty.

Comments

UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN

Uncertainty is Certain G. Donald Allen 12/12/2024 1. Introduction . This short essay is about uncertainty in people from both secular and nonsecular viewpoints. One point that will emerge is that randomly based uncertainty can be a driver for religious structure. Many groups facing uncertainty about their future are deeply religious or rely on faith as a source of comfort, resilience, and guidance. The intersection of uncertainty and religiosity often stems from the human need to find meaning, hope, and stability in the face of unpredictable or challenging circumstances. We first take up the connections of uncertainty to religion for the first real profession, farming, noting that hunting has many similar uncertainties. Below are groups that commonly lean on religious beliefs amidst uncertainty. This short essay is a follow-up to a previous piece on certainty (https://used-ideas.blogspot.com/2024/12/certainty-is-also-emotion.html). U...

Where is AI (Artificial Intelligence) Going?

How to view Artificial Intelligence (AI). Imagine you go to the store to buy a TV, but all they have are 1950s models, black and white, circular screens, picture rolls, and picture imperfect, no remote. You’d say no thanks. Back in the day, they sold wildly. The TV was a must-have for everyone with $250 to spend* (about $3000 today). Compared to where AI is today, this is more or less where TVs were 70 years ago. In only a few decades AI will be advanced beyond comprehension, just like TVs today are from the 50s viewpoint. Just like we could not imagine where the video concept was going back then, we cannot really imagine where AI is going. Buckle up. But it will be spectacular. *Back then minimum wage was $0.75/hr. Thus, a TV cost more than eight weeks' wages. -------------------------

Human Simulation is Possible - by Humans

Human Simulation: Agent-Based Modeling and the Computational Case for Our Reality 1. Introduction In the essay, we introduce the notion that humanity could be a deliberate simulation based on an extremely simple single-celled organism, hardly anything more complex than that. This will allow an (apparently) new interpretation of the notion that humanity is simulated, but that there is no master engineer at a massive number of dials and switches, responsible for every twist and turn of our universe and lives. We begin with the notion that the universe exists and operates under its own laws. So, given the Earth [2] , when and where life first began, it was infused with a living agent, self-actualized, reproductive, and with other basic rules for its operations, interactions, and much of what single-celled organisms do today. The idea from this occurred some years back when writing code in ActionScript (formerly Flash), I was able to create...

First Blog

Search This Blog